NBA Player Prop & Pick: Bet Giannis Antetokounmpo in Bucks vs. 76ers (March 4)

NBA Player Prop & Pick: Bet Giannis Antetokounmpo in Bucks vs. 76ers (March 4) article feature image

Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo.

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NBA Player Prop & Pick

PropGiannis Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 Rebounds (-120)
Matchup76ers vs. Bucks
Time8:30 p.m. ET
Best BookBetMGM

The Milwaukee Bucks put their impressive 16-game win streak on the line as they host the Philadelphia 76ers in a marquee Eastern Conference showdown on ABC tonight.

I'm leaning on the Greek Freak to play full minutes with a tight spread sitting at just 4.5, and I love his rebound prop here.

Antetokounmpo comes in tonight, averaging 12.0 rebounds per game on the season. The MVP candidate has grabbed at least 13 rebounds in 10 of his last 12 games when playing at least 30 minutes this season.

In his last seven matchups against Joel Embiid dating back to the 2019-20 season, Giannis has grabbed at least 13 rebounds six times.

On the matchup side, Embiid ranks third with a 37.0% usage rate, so he commands a lot of attention when he touches the ball. Fortunately for Antetokounmpo, it’s not him who takes on the defensive assignment, but Brook Lopez instead.

Antetokounmpo will likely be hovering over lower-usage players like P.J. Tucker on defense, which will help him crash the boards — especially with how much Embiid is involved in the offense and the fact his primary defender is only focusing on defending his shot.

That explains further why the 76ers are allowing the fewest rebounds per game to centers (11.85) but the fifth-most rebounds to power forwards (11.07) over the last 15 games.

Additionally, Bobby Portis has moved back to the bench, which should help Antetokounmpo convert rebound chances more often.

Overall, I expect a lot of rebound opportunities for the MVP candidate out of Milwaukee and would be comfortable taking his rebound prop up to -140.

Pick: Antetokounmpo o11.5 Rebounds (-120 · Play to -140)

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Nick Sterling
Jun 24, 2024 UTC