NBA Player Prop Pick | Fade Julius Randle in Heat vs Knicks (Saturday, Jan. 27)

NBA Player Prop Pick | Fade Julius Randle in Heat vs Knicks (Saturday, Jan. 27) article feature image

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 23: Julius Randle #30 of the New York Knicks reacts after a dunk during the fourth quarter of the game against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on January 23, 2024 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

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NBA Player Prop Pick | Saturday, Jan. 27

Saturday, Jan 27
3:00 p.m. ET
Julius Randle Under 23.5 Points (-125)

NBA Rivals Week finishes Saturday with a triple-header on ABC, with the Knicks-Heat tipping off first. These teams met in last year's playoffs, and if any player struggles in this matchup – it’s Julius Randle.

Since the RJ Barrett trade, Julius Randle is averaging 25.3 points per game in his last 13 games. Still, this number is slightly inflated, considering he had a 39-point outburst versus a weak Washington Wizards defense.

Randle will now face a down-tempo, slow-paced matchup he’s historically struggled with. Over his last five meetings versus the Heat, Randle averages 16.4 points per game, failing to go over his prop in all five contests. 

This spot does not align with his shot profile and play-type tendencies. Randle is at his best when he can get inside the paint, scoring 42% of his made baskets while collecting 10.1 points per game (35%) via free throws and in transition, but the Heat rank inside the top five in defensive ranking against these areas, per

He will also have to overcome a one-on-one challenge against Bam Adebayo (93rd percentile defensive estimated +/-) – and it won’t be easy. Being the lead defensive signaler, Adebayo’s physical toughness, paired with his versatile lateral quickness, is responsible for holding recent forwards Kristaps Porzingis, Jaren Jackson Jr., Paolo Banchero, and Alperen Sengun under 22 points in his assignments.

Pick: Julius Randle Under 23.5 Points (-125)

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Nick Sterling
May 21, 2024 UTC