NBA Player Prop & Picks: Bet Zach Collins in Trail Blazers vs. Spurs (April 6)
Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Collins.
NBA Player Prop & Pick
|Prop||Zach Collins Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds (-117)|
|Matchup||Trail Blazers vs. Spurs|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
The San Antonio Spurs are in a rare spot as favorites as they host the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday night. Both teams have nothing to play for, but I am playing the “revenge card” for Zach Collins. The center has stepped into a more prominent role since the Jakob Poeltl trade and he now has a chance to show his former team what they’re missing.
Collins is averaging 27.4 points and rebounds per game as a starter when he plays at least 28 minutes. He has eclipsed his prop in eight of these 13 games, including two misses against defensive teams like the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers.
Collins has battled constant setbacks and injuries since being drafted by the Blazers in 2017. When he got to play, he had a small role as a complementary piece next to Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. He has just now gotten a significant role on a team with San Antonio. He and Tre Jones will likely be the Spurs’ primary scoring options in a fantastic matchup against Portland.
Since shutting down Lillard for the season, the Blazers rank 24th in defensive efficiency (120.3) and have allowed the seventh-most points per game (121.1). As a backup to Poeltl last season, Collins mustered 31 and 24 combined points and rebounds in two meetings against Portland’s Drew Eubanks. Collins averaged 24.5 minutes per game in those contests, but he will have a larger role in this one.
Collins’ scoring from beyond the arc is a big part of his ability to stretch the floor — he converted at a 42.6% rate from deep in March. In seven recent games without Lillard, Portland has allowed the most three-pointers made (15.3) at the second-highest conversion rate (42.5%).
Looking at the rebounding department, with the lack of offensive talent on the court, Portland allows opposing teams to grab the second-most boards per game (48.3) in this sample size.
Coming off a game versus the Kings in which he dealt with foul trouble, Collins has a fantastic bounce-back spot against his former team. There is a good chance we see a ceiling performance, and for that reason, I love his points and rebounds prop.
Pick: Zach Collins Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds (-117).
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