Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with our FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Tuesday’s best props focus on two of the slate’s five games:
- New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons: 7 p.m. ET
- Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat: 7:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Knicks PG Emmanuel Mudiay
The Pick: Under 12.5 points (-145)
Mudiay has been on a bit of a roll recently, scoring at least 16 points in three of his past four games. That said, he’s shot 47.8% from the field over that span, which looks like a major outlier when compared to his career mark of 38.1%.
He isn't playing a ton of minutes and is currently projected for only 24 in our Models, so any shooting regression would make it tough for him to hit the over on this scoring prop. The Knicks are currently implied for just 106.25 points, the second-lowest mark on the slate.
I have no problem banking on some shooting regression for Mudiay, who has historically been one of the worst shooters in the league. I’d play this prop up to -175.
Heat G Dwyane Wade
The Pick: Over 13.5 points (-130)
The Heat are in one of the best spots of the day against the Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season. They're also rank 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Heat's implied team total of 115.75 is the top mark on the slate.
Wade is coming off 35 points in his last game thanks to a season-high usage rate of 34.1%. The Heat are currently down Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson, so it's not all that surprising that Wade saw some additional opportunities in his last game: He’s posted a usage rate of 29.4% with both players off the floor this season.
I love Wade’s scoring potential in this game and would play this prop up to -180.
