NBA Player Props Betting Forecast: Aftermath of the Trade Deadline

The NBA Trade Deadline has come and gone with a number of teams making significant moves. Let's dive into the implications of that as we head into the All-Star Break.

NBA Player Props Betting Forecast

The Knicks' Bring Back a Familiar Face and Some New Ones

Schedule: Feb. 12 @ Rockets | Feb. 14 @ Magic | Feb. 22 @ 76ers

The New York Knicks seemed to be winners of the NBA Trade Deadline. Throughout trade season they acquired OG Anunoby from the Raptors. Then at the deadline, they acquired Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks from the Detroit Pistons for Malachi Flynn, Quentin Grimes, Ryan Arcidiacono, and Evan Fournier along with some second-round picks. To do all of this while maintaining their first-round picks was a masterclass by Leon Rose.

The Knicks are dealing with a number of injuries right now, but they've brought on a significant amount of usage and scoring with Bogdanovic and Burks. This season, Bogdanovic has had a usage of 23.1% and Burks had 22.3% with the Pistons. In this new role, they will have to adapt. Bogdanovic played 33 minutes while Burks played 22 in their debuts. The Knicks ran a very tight rotation without Hartenstein, Anunoby, Sims, and Randle but everyone fell behind Jalen Brunson once again in the Usage pecking order. Brunson is the clear head of the snake for this offense and in this six-game stretch without Randle he is averaging 33.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists on an absurd 38.5% Usage Rate.

The Knicks play the Rockets on Monday night who will be without Fred VanVleet and potentially Alperen Sengun (questionable). This may be an opportunity for Brunson to get to the rack and facilitate from the inside out against a Houston team that allows 3 point attempts at one of the highest frequencies in the league but has defended them well with their opponents shooting the lowest percentage in the league (34.8%), per Cleaning the Glass.

This is a matchup that would fit well for Bogdanovic. His points prop was set at 14.5 in his debut – he's averaged 19.9 points per game this season and he has taken nearly 50% of his shots from 3 point range while shooting 42% from deep. He's a bucket and despite taking fewer shots in his debut, I expect the efficiency to improve moving forward.

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Buddy Hield to Philly

Schedule: Feb. 12 @ Cavaliers | Feb. 14 vs. Heat | Feb. 22 vs. Knicks

The 76ers decided to make a move and acquired Buddy Hield from the Indiana Pacers in a three-team trade with the Indiana Pacers and the San Antonio Spurs. Hield is a player the Sixers have long coveted for his elite 3 point shooting and now they can bring him in to take some pressure off of Tyrese Maxey without Joel Embiid.

Buddy Hield is one of the best 3-point shooters in NBA History, he has taken nearly 70% of his shots from deep over the last few seasons and is a career 40.1% 3-point shooter. This volume is already evident in Philadelphia. In two games he's made 4/9 and 4/12 attempts from deep. Philly has 5 games this week, and there are great matchups for Hield against the Heat and the Knicks. His 3s line continues to be set at 2.5 or 3.5 and either is worth a look in those matchups.

The Mavericks add Reinforcements

Schedule: Feb. 12 vs. Wizards | Feb. 14 vs. Spurs | Feb. 22 vs. Suns

The Dallas Mavericks had a busy deadline as they added Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington while shipping off Grant Williams, Seth Curry, and Richaun Holmes. This changes the team dynamic a bit but does give them some meaningful size behind rookie Dereck Lively.

Daniel Gafford is a player I expect to thrive alongside Luka Doncic. In his first game alongside Luka Doncic he racked up 19 points and 9 rebounds in just 17 minutes. Without Lively, he can be a solid roll man for the pick-and-roll with Luka and Kyrie Irving. His PR is set at 16.5 for Monday night, and definitely is worth a look – he's averaged 19.1 PR this season and he has a matchup against his old team, the Wizards, who are woefully thin on the interior. His Double Double is priced at (+380) and is a natural escalation to the 16.5 PR.

With Kyrie Irving healthy, it has been profitable to fade Luka's assists. On the season, he has reached double-digit assists in just 7 of 26 games alongside Kyrie Irving while averaging 8.1 per game. This game against the Wizards on Monday has some blowout potential, so while I think Luka's passing could contribute to that, the Mavericks would need Luka to score proficiently to reach that blowout. I'd lean towards an under but the matchup I'd definitely target is against the Suns on Thursday for an Assists under.

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