NBA Player Props Betting Forecast: Heat Need a Herro, Brooklyn Block Party

NBA Player Props Betting Forecast: Heat Need a Herro, Brooklyn Block Party article feature image
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Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat drives against the Atlanta Hawks during the first half at State Farm Arena. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

The NBA Season is 10% complete already and we are at the point of the season where we need to determine if results are now trends or if they are simply "noise." Let's dive into this week's hot topics.

NBA Player Props Betting Forecast

The Miami Heat: In Search of a Herro

Schedule: Nov. 14 at Hornets | Nov. 16 vs. Nets | Nov. 18 at Bulls

The Miami Heat are maligned by injuries right now with the key injury being to Tyler Herro. Herro suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain last Wednesday against the Grizzlies and the team will be without him for a few weeks. The team has also been without Caleb Martin (knee) and Kyle Lowry is a rest candidate on back-to-backs.

Damian Lillard Trade Centerpiece Exciting young rookie, Jaime Jaquez Jr is a candidate for an increased role without Herro. He saw his minutes spike on Saturday against Atlanta and capitalized in an expanded role. He scored 20 points, with 3 rebounds and 4 assists in 38 minutes with a 23% usage, per Cleaning the Glass. Jaquez also saw significant minutes on Sunday where his props were set at 11.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists.

One staple in the Miami lineup is Bam Adebayo. His usage on the offensive end has seen an uptick this season generally to a career-high of 28.0%, per Cleaning the Glass. One of the issues Adebayo has had this season in an increased role is ball security. At the time of this writing, Adebayo is averaging 3.5 Turnovers per game, which is by far the highest level in his career and a significant uptick from last season's 2.5 per game. His turnovers line has continued to be set at 2.5 and he has exceeded this in 7 of 8 games this season with 5 games at 4 turnovers. Betting on his turnovers is not even about the defenses he is playing against, rather it is based on his increased usage.

This upcoming week, the Heat take on the Hornets, the Nets, and the Bulls. The matchup against the Hornets is elite, it is a clear Pace up spot and an opportunity for Adebayo to shine on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. I will be eying his points + rebounds prop in that matchup.

Another LA Update: The New Look Clippers

Schedule: Nov. 14 at Nuggets | Nov. 17 vs. Rockets | Nov. 20 at Spurs

The James Harden experience has been bad so far in Los Angeles. The Clippers are 0-4 with Harden over the last week and have a -11.6 Net Rating over this stretch. It has been abysmal in LA. Additionally, to add injury to insult, Mason Plumlee will be out for the foreseeable future as he recovers from a serious MCL sprain. This team that was so hopeful for the future is suddenly struggling to stay afloat in an ultra-competitive Western Conference.

What can we take from the one week of games though?

They are playing at a snail's Pace. The Clippers have a 97.25 Pace during this stretch of games. This is notable because the only team that typically plays slower than them were the Knicks. A slower Pace means fewer possessions for the Clippers and their opponents to rack up stats.

With Harden, no Clipper is averaging more than 18.8 points per game. Kawhi is at 18.8, Paul George 17.0, Westbrook, 14.0, and Harden, 13.5. Additionally, no one is averaging many assists. Westbrook leads with 4.8, Harden at 4.3, Bones Hyland, 3.3, Paul George, 3.3, and Kawhi 3.0. The concerning thing is that they have not shot too poorly – they are shooting 45.1% from the field and 30.2% from 3, but the offense just has not flowed properly at all.

The Clippers will have a tough task on Tuesday in their In-Season Tournament game against the Nuggets. In that game, expect Jokic to dominate. In 6 games against Zubac over the last three seasons, Jokic has averaged 26.2 points, 13.7 rebounds, and 7.8 assists. The Clippers will have even fewer answers for him than normal due to Plumlee's injury as well. I'd look to bet on his Rebounds specifically considering he's secured 13+ in 5 of those 6 contests.


The Block Party is Back in Brooklyn

Schedule: Nov. 14 vs. Magic | Nov. 16 at Heat | Nov. 19 vs. 76ers

Nic Claxton has made his long awaited return after playing just one game due to an ankle injury and now looks to anchor the Brooklyn Nets' defense moving forward.

Claxton is one of the league's best defenders, and his uncanny ability to block shots is one that we can take advantage of. Last season, Claxton averaged 2.5 blocks per game, this season, he's blocked 3 and 4 shots in the two games he has played. This coming week, Claxton has matchups against the Magic, the Sixers, and the Heat. In 13 games against those teams last season, Claxton recorded 2 or more blocks in 10 of them and 3+ in 8 games. If it is set at 1.5 it's a must bet on Tuesday against the Orlando Magic.

Additionally, Claxton's props were set at 7.5 points, and 15.5 points + rebounds in his first game back on Sunday. Considering he averaged 12.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game last season, both of those numbers were too low. Be prepared to bet his points prop against the Magic if this does not adjust to even 10.5 for his points line.

Besides Claxton's individual props, his return significantly bolsters the Nets' defense. Currently, Brooklyn is 14th in Adjusted Defensive Rating, per Dunks and Threes. With Claxton, I expect this to improve significantly. Last season, Claxton was in the 97th percentile of Defensive EPM and he has been a clear positive defensively throughout his career due to his ability to play and execute multiple defensive schemes. I expect Brooklyn's defense to improve significantly over the next few weeks.

One player that has given Claxton difficulty is Embiid, but that's no surprise considering Embiid gives everyone some difficulty. But a matchup to watch this week will be Adebayo vs Claxton. Bam has averaged 3.5 turnovers per game in those contests and even though Claxton has struggled to score himself against Adebayo, he still has been a menace defensively.


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Doug Ziefel
Jun 23, 2024 UTC