Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Monday: Will Al-Farouq Aminu Drop 12 Points?

Highlighted below is an NBA player prop from each of the two playoff games Monday night:

• Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
• Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets: 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

76ers SF Jimmy Butler

THE PICK: Under 19 Points (-145)

This pick is contingent on the status of Joel Embiid (illness/probable). If he plays, this prop would be way too high.

According to our NBA On/Off tool, Butler is averaging 14.0 points per 36 minutes in the Simmons-Redick-Butler-Harris-Embiid starting unit; with Embiid off and Butler on, the latter pours in 21.9 points per 36. Butler and Embiid have shared the floor for 67% of Butler’s minutes this season, so the odds would be against Butler scoring above expectation if Embiid were to suit up — especially against a stingy Raptors defense that has the Sixers implied to score 106.5 points — more than six fewer than their regular-season average (112.6).

After going off for 36 points in the first game of Philly’s first-round series against Brooklyn, Butler has failed to top 16 points in his six postseason games since (though one got cut short due to an ejection).

At under 19 (-145), this prop is rated a 9 by our props tool, and points props rated as such have cruised to a 62% win rate this season, which is actually slightly better than 10-rated points props (61%).

I’d bet the under down to a line of 17.5.

Blazers PF Al-Farouq Aminu 

THE PICK: Under 11.5 Points (-130)

Aminu had a big 23-point game against the Nuggets on April 7, but Denver was resting its frontline of Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap in that contest.

Aminu will pop up for big game here and there because opposing defenses practically beg him and Moe Harkless to shoot, but the odds are still against him ending up with 12 points, especially in a tough road environment against the NBA’s second-ranked defense in points per game allowed at home during the regular season (103.5).

At under 11.5 (-125), this prop is rated a perfect 10 by our props tool. Aminu topped 11 points in just 13-of-44 (29.5%) road games this season, failing to crack double figures in 56% of those games, so the under should have value down to a line of 9.5 at standard juice.

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me on there if you aren’t already.