Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Dec. 18): Hassan Whiteside Should Dominate the Boards
Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Hassan Whiteside
- Wednesday's nine-game NBA slate features four player prop bets providing value.
- This piece will focus on Wizards F Davis Bertans, Heat C Bam Adebayo, Celtics PG Kemba Walker and Blazers C Hassan Whiteside.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from four of the slate’s nine games:
- Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards: 7 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers: 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks: 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers: 10 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Wizards PF Davis Bertans
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-134)
The Wizards big men are dropping like flies at the moment. Rui Hachimura will join Moe Wagner and Thomas Bryant on the sidelines for tonight’s contest vs. the Bulls, while center Ian Mahinmi continues to play limited minutes since returning from injury.
That doesn’t leave much depth behind Bertans, who should command a massive workload. He’s coming off 35.9 minutes in his last game, and he’s currently projected for 37.2 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models.
Bertans is not an elite rebounder — he’s averaging just 5.6 rebounds per 36 minutes this season — but he should be able to improve upon that number vs. the Bulls. They rank just 28th in team rebound rate, so this is an elite matchup.
I love this bet given the combination of matchup and the Wizards’ injury situation. I’d play the over up to -160.
Heat C Bam Adebayo
THE PICK: Over 4.0 assists (-143)
Adebayo has a tough matchup today vs. the 76ers, who currently rank sixth in defensive efficiency. That said, this line is simply too low given the Heat’s current injury situation. They’ll be without both Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow, and Adebayo has increased his assist rate by 4.4% in seven games with both players out of the lineup this season. The result is an average of 6.4 assists per game.
Adebayo has taken his game to another level this season as a distributor, and he’s handed out at least five assists in each of his past five games. I like the over up to -165.
Celtics PG Kemba Walker
THE PICK: Over 5.5 assists (-134)
Walker should be asked to carry a massive offensive workload for the Celtics today. They’re going to be without Marcus Smart and Gordon Hayward, who have been two of their primary facilitators this season. Unsurprisingly, Walker has increased his assist rate by 9.8% with both players off the court, resulting in an average of 6.7 assists per 36 minutes.
This number has been low for Walker even with the Celtics at full strength recently. He’s logged at least seven assists in five of his past six games.
I’m buying Walker in DFS and the prop market today. I’d play this prop up to -150.
Blazers C Hassan Whiteside
THE PICK: Over 13.5 rebounds (-110)
This is a huge number, but I still think the over provides plenty of value today. Whiteside has been logging more minutes recently, playing at least 31.3 in five of his past six games. He’s one of the best rebounders in the league — he ranks fifth in total rebound percentage — and he’s averaged 15.8 rebounds per 36 minutes this season.
He has a massive advantage on the interior today vs. the Golden State Warriors. They rank just 23rd in team rebound rate and dead last in offensive efficiency, which is a great combination for defensive rebounds.
There are always blowout concerns with the Warriors — the Blazers are favored by 9.5 points — but Whiteside should be able to hit the over on this prop if the game stays competitive. I would play it up to -125.