NBA Player Props, Picks: Best Bets for Sunday, January 29

NBA Player Props, Picks: Best Bets for Sunday, January 29 article feature image

Pictured: Jonas Valanciunas. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)

After hitting two of our three NBA player props last night, we look to keep that momentum to finish off the weekend with tonight's three-game slate. Even with only three games on the schedule, there are two props that look great in our NBA Model which are Buddy Hield and Jonas Valanciunas.

NBA Player Props & Picks

Buddy Hield, Under 22.5 Points (-115)

SpreadGrizzlies -8.5
Time | TV6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best LineDraftKings

Playing without their star point guard Tyrese Haliburton has been a struggle for the Pacers. They have lost nine of their last 10 games as they continue to plummet down the Eastern Conference standings. The Pacers are 8.5-point road underdogs against the Grizzlies who has a 20-3 home record this season.

Many players have had to step up in Haliburton's absence, including veteran shooting guard Buddy Hield. He has averaged five 3-pointers in his last four games and still has failed to score 23 or more points in any of those contests. In fact, Hield hasn't scored more than 22 points in a game since January 11th.

In that 10-game stretch where the Pacers have gone 1-9, Hield is averaging only 16.8 points per game. In a game where the Pacers could easily lose by double-digits, it is tough to see Hield reaching this over at this inflating prop line. Our Prop Model has Hield projected for only 19 points in this matchup.

The Grizzlies lead the league in Defensive Rating (109.7), entering tonight's games and rank above average in 3-point percentage allowed. Even in his last two games where Hield shot 57.7% from the field, he still didn't score more than 22 points. I would take this under prop down to 20.5 points tonight.

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Jonas Valanciunas, Over 9.5 Rebounds (-115)

SpreadBucks -9
Time | TV8 p.m. ET | NBA TV
Best LineDraftKings

Playing on a back-to-back, the Pelicans will likely be playing without Brandon Ingram as Zion Williamson remains out due to injury. Similar to the Pacers, the Pelicans are nine-point road underdogs as they have lost seven-straight games. The Bucks are also dominate when playing at home with a 19-5 record.

Jonas Valanciunas was ejected last game and only played nine minutes. He will be well-rested for this back-to-back and our NBA Model has him projected for 11.1 rebounds, which is well over this 9.5 rebound prop line. Valanciunas has exceeded this prop line in 11 of his 14 games this month, including the ejection.

Over that 14-game span, Valanciunas is averaging exactly 11 rebounds per game. The Bucks are allowing 44.1 rebounds per game, which is tied for the ninth-highest in the league. Not only has Valanciunas been well over this prop recently, but this is a great rebounding matchup with Brook Lopez out tonight.

The minutes for Valanciunas tend to fluctuate, but without Williamson and Ingram in the lineup, Valanciunas could be in line for more minutes in this spot. There is a chance the Pelicans can get run out of the gym in this matchup, but even in 25-30 minutes, Valanciunas has proven he can reach this over.

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Nick Sterling
Jul 13, 2024 UTC