Saturday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Julius Randle Points, More
Pictured: Pelicans PF Julius Randle, Photo Credit: Catalina Fragoso-USA Today Sports
- Saturday's 11-game NBA slate features four player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Hornets C Cody Zeller, Pelicans PF/C Julius Randle, Celtics SG Jaylen Brown, and Kings PF Marvin Bagley.
Saturday’s best NBA player props focus on four of the slate’s 11 games:
- Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets: 7 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans: 7 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls: 8 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder: 8 p.m. ET
As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool. It leverages our projections against five of the most popular online sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of one to 10.
Hornets C Cody Zeller
The Pick: Over 7.5 rebounds (-160)
Zeller has been a force on the glass recently, grabbing at least eight boards in nine of his past 10 games. He’s also seen a nice bump in playing time recently, playing at least 29.5 minutes in each of his past three games.
He has a dream matchup today vs. the Brooklyn Nets, who have been crushed on the glass by opposing centers all season. Zeller logged 10 and eight rebounds in his last two matchups vs. the Nets, and he averaged just 24 minutes in those contests.
This line feels way off, and I’d play the over up to -200.
Pelicans PF/C Julius Randle
The Pick: Over 19 points (-115)
Anthony Davis will get the night off for the New Orleans Pelicans, which makes Randle a really appealing target. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.4% with Davis and Nikola Mirotic off the court this season, resulting in an average of 28.1 points per 36 minutes.
He played just under 39 minutes the last time Davis was unable to suit up and also has an excellent matchup today vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. They’ve played at the fourth fastest pace this season, so Randle should have plenty of opportunities to score the basketball.
Randle scored 21 points in his first matchup with the Lakers this season despite posting a usage rate of just 23.8%. That number should be much higher in today’s contest, so I’d play the over up to -140.
Celtics SG Jaylen Brown
The Pick: Under 13.5 points (-115)
Brown has scored at least 15 points in two of his past three games, which has caused his scoring prop to be slightly inflated for tonight’s contest vs. the Bulls.
He’s not playing many minutes with the team back at full strength and is currently projected for just 23.5 in our NBA Models. Brown has gone under 13.5 points in five of his past eight games, so I think this is an excellent opportunity to sell high on him.
Betting unders is never fun, but I still think this prop offers nice value at the current number. I wouldn’t play it at greater than -125 though.
Kings PF Marvin Bagley
The Pick: Over seven rebounds (-140)
Bagley hasn’t seen the most consistent playing time this season, but he’s been a strong producer when given the opportunity. He’s averaged 20.1 points and 10.4 rebounds per 36 minutes, and his playing time is definitely trending in the right direction.
He’s logged at least 27 minutes in six of his past eight games, including at least 31.5 minutes in two of his past three. Bagley has grabbed at least seven rebounds in seven of his past eight contests, so this line is simply too low.
Bagley is in store for a big finish to the season if he continues to see that much playing time, and I’m looking to buy as much stock as possible. I would play the over on his rebound prop up to -160.