Monday NBA Prop Picks for Robert Williams III, Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Poole
Alex Goodlett/Getty Images. Pictured: Lauri Markkanen #23 of the Utah Jazz.
- NBA player props are all about opportunities and tonight's top picks feature two players whose roles will be impacted by injuries.
- Alex Hinton explains where he's finding betting value for Jordan Poole, Lauri Markkanen and Robert Williams.
- Check out his player prop picks below.
It was a wild weekend in the NBA with Kyrie Irving demanding a trade from the Brooklyn Nets Friday, then getting sent to the Dallas Mavericks for Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, and draft picks.
The Nets will host the Clippers while the Mavericks will be in Utah to face the Jazz Monday. Speaking of the Mavericks, the Warriors lost Stephen Curry to injury against Dallas Saturday.
The loss of Finney-Smith for Dallas and Curry for Golden State creates value for other players in those to matchups. However, first let’s begin in Detroit where Boston Celtics center Robert Williams III could be in for a big night against the Pistons.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Robert Williams III Over 18.5 PTS + REB (-106)
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Pistons are a young rebuilding team so it is not a surprise that they have struggled to get string stops together this season. They rank 29th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. They particularly struggled defending centers this season, ranking 28th according to props.cash.
Recently, Detroit has given up 21 points and four rebounds to Brook Lopez, 27 points and 13 rebounds to Nicholas Claxton and 31 points and 16 rebounds to DeAndre Ayton. Tonight, Robert Williams III will look to take advantage of the Pistons weakness on the interior.
This season, Williams III is averaging 16.3 points + rebounds (8.2 points and 8.1 rebounds). Though he is below this line on average, he has cleared it in four of the past six games. In one of the games that he went under, he left early due to injury against the Raptors.
Williams III also recently had a game against the Nets where he had 16 points and nine rebounds in just 19 minutes. That is important because the Celtics are an 11 point favorite. Just in case the game gets out of hand, he can clear this line in three quarters.
Unlike a center like Ayton, Williams III will not have many plays ran for him. However, he is a lob threat and he will score on putbacks on offensive rebounds. Putbacks are the best kind of play for this bet because he will get two points and at least one offensive rebound on that possession. He is averaging 3.1 offensive rebounds per game this season.
At 18.5, an easy way for Williams III to clear this line is if he gets a double-double, but if he scores 10 points and grabs nine rebounds, it can still cash. However, I do like his chances of getting a double-double (+260) tonight and he has done three times this season.
Lauri Markkanen Over 25.5 Points (-115)
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Last Wednesday, we cashed on Markkanen’s points against the Raptors. It was 24.5 then and is up one point tonight, but I am going back to him again. Markkanen is averaging 26.1 points over his last 10 games. Tonight, Markkanen gets the Dallas Mavericks who will be shorthanded following the trade for Kyrie Irving.
The Mavericks made the necessary move of trading for Irving to pair another star with Luka Doncic. However, they created another hole when they traded forward Dorian Finney-Smith as part of the deal. Finney-Smith was Dallas’ best perimeter defender and likely would have drawn Markkanen on defense in this matchup. Dallas held Markkanen to 21.5 PPG in the first two meetings, but without Finney-Smith, they do not have a great matchup for him.
Additionally, Dallas is the worst team in the league at defending power forwards, per props.cash. It is also 24th in field goal percentage defense and 23rd in defensive efficiency. Markkanen should have no problem scoring 26 points in this matchup.
Jordan Poole Over 3.5 Turnovers (-135)
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
On Saturday, Warriors star guard Stephen Curry suffered a left leg injury and he will be out for a couple of weeks. No one can replace Curry’s impact on the floor, but Poole does average nearly 27 points per game when he does not play. At 22.5, Poole will probably go over that line, however I am targeting him in a different way.
When Curry does not play, Poole has increased ball-handing responsibilities along with Draymond Green. As a result, Poole’s turnovers spike. Curry played in the Warriors previous seven games before going down.
Prior to the Dallas game, Poole did not have four turnovers in the previous six games and finished with two in four of them. Once Curry left the game, he finished with four turnovers against the Mavericks.
Poole has played 15 games without Curry this season and he has had four turnovers in 13 of them, averaging 4.1 turnovers per game. He is averaging five turnovers per game in the last 10 games he has played without Curry. He will face a Thunder team that forces 8.2 steals per game, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 1.7 steals per game. He may see some time matched up against Poole with Lu Dort still out of the lineup.
The Thunder and Warriors play at two of the fastest paces in the league. More possessions will give more opportunities for turnovers and a faster-paced could lead to a few rushed mistakes in transition. I am on DraftKings for this play, but if you only have access to FanDuel, you can live bet once the game starts.
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