NBA Player Props: LaVine, Brunson, Thompson on Monday Night (March 20)
Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Zach LaVine of the Chicago Bulls.
- Alex Hinton has a trio of player props for Monday night's NBA slate.
- His targets include total points for the Bulls' Zach Lavine, as well as props for Jalen Brunson and Klay Thompson.
- Check out his picks and analysis for all of the games below.
The Philadelphia 76ers are flying high after winning eight straight games and moving into second place in the Eastern Conference.
However, to get win No. 9 in a row, the 76ers will have to slow down Zach LaVine as his Bulls head to town. That may be difficult, given LaVine’s history in Philadelphia.
The New York Knicks are on a winning streak of their own and are holding steady in fifth place in the Eastern Conference. On Saturday, New York got point guard Jalen Brunson back in the starting lineup and beat the Denver Nuggets for its third straight win.
Brunson scored 24 points in that game, but I’m targeting him to contribute in a different area tonight.
Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors are on a three-game losing skid, which can only mean they are playing on the road. Tonight, the Warriors will be in Houston to battle the Rockets as they try to salvage this road trip and maintain positioning in the Western Conference.
Klay Thompson just may be the difference as he gets the opportunity to light up a familiar foe.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Zach Lavine Over 25.5 Points (-113)
|Time | TV||7:00 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Zach LaVine may be a lover of Philly cheesesteaks, and I certainly would not blame him. Whatever the reason is, he seems to really enjoy playing in Philadelphia. Since joining the Bulls, LaVine is averaging 28.5 points per game in eight games in Philadelphia. He has scored 26 points in five of those games, including four games with 30 points.
LaVine’s trip to Philadelphia comes at a time when he is having one of his best stretches of the season. He has gone over this line in seven of his past 10 games while averaging 30.1 points per game. Unfortunately, one of the times that he went under came when I was on him last week against the Kings. However, in that game, he still scored 25 points despite shooting 7-for-22 from the field.
I expect him to have a similar volume tonight. LaVine is averaging 19.7 field goal attempts over his last 10 games, and he had 19 in the last meeting against Philadelphia. In that game, he knocked down 11 threes on his way to 41 points. It was the third time in his career that LaVine has made five or threes against the Sixers.
If you are looking for a lotto to sprinkle on, LaVine to score 35 points and make five threes is +1675 on FanDuel.
Pick: Zach Lavine Over 25.5 Points (-113)
Jalen Brunson Over 3.5 Rebounds (-120)
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Jalen Brunson has been battling a foot injury that has limited him to four games this month. He has grabbed four rebounds in just one of four games in March. However, he averaged 4.1 rebounds per game in January and 4.3 in February. Tonight, he has a good opportunity to crash the boards against the Timberwolves.
Minnesota ranks 25th in the league by allowing 44.9 rebounds per game. Over the last 15 games, Minnesota ranks 28th in rebounds allowed to point guards. Additionally, there may be a few more rebounds available tonight. Minnesota centers Rudy Gobert (the league’s fourth-leading rebounder) and Naz Reid are both listed as questionable. Minnesota guard Anthony Edwards, a good rebounder in his own right, is also questionable.
If Gobert plays, he will be fighting off Knicks centers Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds. Each of them is capable of grabbing 10 or more in limited minutes, but their current timeshare makes them unreliable for prop betting. Per NBA Stats, Brunson averages 6.7 rebounding chances per game, of which he grabs 53%. Minnesota attempts 33 three-pointers per game. A few of those misses may just find their way into Brunson’s hands to help us cash this over.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 3.5 Rebounds (-120)
Klay Thompson Over 4.5 Threes (+134)
|Time | TV||8:00 p.m. ET | FanDuel|
One thing that is certain about tonight’s Warriors-Rockets game is that I love Klay Thompson’s matchup tonight. In two games against the Rockets this season, Thompson had 41 points and 10 threes in the first meeting and 42 points and 12 threes in the second. In the two meetings, he is shooting 61.9% from the field and 73.3% from beyond the arc.
Pitting a shooter such as Thompson against the Rockets – it’s not hard to see why. Houston ranks 27th in three-point percentage defense, and it ranks last in allowing 14.6 threes per game. Per props.cash, it is 24th in defending shooting guards this season. Additionally, the Rockets are allowing the second-most threes to shooting guards over the last 15 games.
However, the one thing I was struggling with for this pick was whether to take Thompson’s threes or points because I love both. Thompson is averaging 21.9 points per game this season, and his line is at 21.5 (-105) tonight. He has doubled that average against the Rockets this season. Given that Thompson gets most of his points off threes, I am going to chase the plus odds here. Thompson has 256 threes this season, which account for 58.4% of his points this season.
We may know early how this bet is going to go. When Thompson gets hot early, there are not many players who can pile up threes up like him. Just this season alone, Thompson has seven games with eight or more threes, including last week against the Suns.
If you get the chance to watch the game live, you may be able to capitalize on a live betting opportunity. If Thompson hits two or three threes in the first quarter, his live line may move to 5.5 or 6.5 threes. That will be free money if he knocks down eight or more against the Rockets again.
Pick: Klay Thompson Over 4.5 Threes (+132)
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