NBA Player Props Today: Expert Picks for Michael Porter Jr, Wendell Carter Jr (Friday, March 15)
MIAMI, FL – MARCH 13:Michael Porter Jr. #1 of the Denver Nuggets shoots the ball during the game against the Miami Heat on March 13, 2024 at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Eric Espada/NBAE via Getty Images)
Locked in a tight battle for seeding in the Eastern Conference, the Orlando Magic head to Toronto one game back of the Knicks for the fourth seed. Wendell Carter Jr. will look to contribute to another Magic victory by helping them control the glass.
The Denver Nuggets are 10-1 since the All-Star Break and Michael Porter Jr. has stepped up his game during that stretch. Tonight, he has a great matchup against the Spurs.
Let's dive into my top two NBA player props props for today, Friday, March 15, and hopefully this duo will take us into the weekend on high note.
NBA Player Props Today: Expert Picks for Friday, March 15
Wendell Carter Jr. comes into tonight's game averaging nine rebounds per game over his past nine games. He has cleared this line five times during that span and finished with eight in two others. Carter Jr. has three games of 10 rebounds in that span, including 15 against Indiana last Sunday. Another big rebounding game may be in the cards against the Raptors tonight.
In Wednesday's game in Detroit, the Raptors not only gave up 23 rebounds to Jalen Duren, but James Wiseman also had 10 off the bench as well.
Additionally, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Jonas Valanciunas, and Myles Turner all had 10 rebounds or more against the Raptors. Over the last 15 games, Toronto has allowed 16.9 rebounds per game to centers, the fifth-most in the league. They also remain without their two leading rebounders, Jakob Poeltl and Scottie Barnes.
A team with Orlando's size should be able to control the glass in this matchup. That is why I am backing its center in Carter Jr. He only needed 22 minutes to grab 10 rebounds against the Pistons, but his minutes have been on the rise. He is averaging 26.3 minutes per game over his last 10 games and he has 27 minutes or more in four of his last five games.
If Carter Jr. has that kind of workload again tonight, he should be able to grab nine rebounds in this matchup. He is also +280 to record 12 rebounds and +185 for a double-double. He scored 26 points in his last game against the Raptors.
Pick: Wendell Carter Jr. Over 8.5 Rebounds (-128)
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Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 20.5 points per game in 11 games since the All-Star Break, an uptick from his 16.7 average for the season. As one of the primary floor spacers in Denver's offense, nearly half of Porter Jr.'s points and field goal attempts come via threes. He averages 2.8 made three-pointers on 6.9 attempts per game.
Since the All-Star Break, he is averaging 3.1 made threes on 7.3 attempts per game, knocking 42.5% of them. Porter Jr. has made three or more three-pointers in six of his last 11 games, making four times in that stretch.
That includes his performance this past Wednesday when he knocked down five threes against Miami on the way to 25 points.
After the game, Porter Jr. credited his teammates for the open looks he was getting. Playing with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray certainly leads to a lot of open shots. Tonight, he should get them again in a plus matchup against the Spurs.
The Spurs are giving up 13 made three-pointers per game and are 26th in three-point percentage defense. Porter Jr. has scored 24 and 25 points in two of his last four games against the Spurs. He has knocked three or more three-pointers in three of those games as well.
His points line is 17.5 tonight and I lean towards the over. If he gets there, it will likely because he cleared his line for made threes as well.
For additional value, you can back Porter Jr. to hit four three-pointers at +220 and five threes at +650 on FanDuel. He has knocked down four in two of his last three games against the Spurs and five in three of his last 10 games overall.
Pick: Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-125)
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