NBA Player Props Today | Picks, Bets for NBA Friday

NBA Player Props Today | Picks, Bets for NBA Friday article feature image

Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Herro

NBA Player Props Today | Picks, Bets for NBA Friday

Time (ET)Player Props Today
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Tonight is a historic night in the NBA as the inaugural In-Season Tournament tips off with group play, and we are locked and loaded with a full slate of the best NBA player prop picks and bets spanning Friday's action.

In the first game of ESPN’s doubleheader, the Knicks will visit Milwaukee to take on the Bucks. Jalen Brunson is in prime position for a big night.

The defending Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat have lost four straight since an opening night victory over the Pistons. However, they welcome a struggling Washington team to Miami this Friday. Tyler Herro might help the Heat snap their losing streak.

The Warriors will be in Oklahoma City to battle the Thunder. Unfortunately, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out so we will be denied the matchup of potential All-NBA candidates between himself and Stephen Curry. However, Josh Giddey may pick up the slack for him in the backcourt.

Let's get to the NBA player props today and our picks and bets for Friday.

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Best NBA In-Season Tournament Player Props Tonight

Friday, Nov 3
7:30pm ET
Jalen Brunson Over 23.5 Points (-111)

As a long-time basketball fan, the pairing of Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo is something that I have wanted to see for awhile. However with a new head coach (Adrian Griffin), the Bucks are a work in progress right now, particularly on defense. The Bucks are currently 28th in the league in scoring defense (122 PPG), field goal percentage defense, and three-point percentage. They have particularly struggled against point guards. Tyrese Maxey lit them up for 31 points last Thursday while Dennis Schroeder had 24 points against them on Wednesday night.

This is good news for Jalen Brunson, who hit this line right on the nose with 24 points in his last outing against Cleveland. Brunson has cleared this number in just two games thus far. However, he has faced a pair of solid defensive teams in Boston (including former Buck Jrue Holiday) and New Orleans. He was also pulled early in a blowout versus Cleveland in the first game of a back-to-back set, finishing with 19 points.

Brunson has already posted a 30-point game against Atlanta this season. He also went for 44 points against the Bucks the last time he faced them. However, that was with Holiday still on the roster. Now that Holiday is a Celtic, the Bucks will have a hard time slowing down Brunson tonight.

Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 23.5 Points (-111)

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Friday, Nov 3
8:00pm ET
Tyler Herro Over 23.5 Points (-122)

The NBA season is a little over a week old, but I can already tell that I will be fading the Wizards a lot this season. The Wizards are currently last in the NBA in scoring defense at 126.3 points per game. They have allowed at least 126 points in three of their first four games. In those games, they have allowed at least 24 points to Bruce Brown, Desmond Bane, Jaylen Brown and DeJounte Murray with Brown going for 36 points in three quarters.

Enter Tyler Herro, who has began this season on fire. Herro has scored 22 points in each of his last four games. This season, he has cleared this line in three of his first five games. In all of those games, he scored 28 points or more, including two with 30 points.

Long range marksmanship has helped fuel Herro's hot start. He is shooting 43.2% from three on 8.8 attempts per game. He has knocked down four three-point attempts in three of his first games, attempting 10 in each of those games. Washington is allowing nearly 17 three-pointers per game, ranking 29th in the league and 26th in three-point percentage defense.

If they run him off the line, Herro is also effective in the midrange area. He is also attempting over 20 field goal attempts per game. With that kind of volume, he should be able score 24 points against a porous Washington defense.

Pick: Tyler Herro Over 23.5 Points (-122)
Friday, Nov 3
8:00pm ET
Josh Giddey Over 14.5 Rebounds + Assists (-130)

Josh Giddey is always a threat to go for a triple-double, but this season he has gotten off to a bit of a slow start. Giddey is shooting below 40% from the field and averaging six rebounds and 4.4 assists. This season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 6.8 rebounds and 6.6 assists and he shares facilitating duties with Giddey. However, that volume could fall to Giddey tonight with Gilgeous-Alexander out of the lineup.

Giddey has played 110 career games with Gilgeous-Alexander and 25 games without him. With Gilgeous-Alexander in the lineup, Giddey has a 23% usage rate, averaging 7.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists for 13.6 combined. Without him, his usage rate goes up to 26% and he averages 8.1 rebounds and 7.4 assists for 15.5 combined.

This will be the first game Giddey has played with Chet Holmgren, but without Gilgeous-Alexander. Holmgren is another candidate to grab a few more rebounds as well. However, Golden State attempts a lot of three-pointers, which should lead to plenty of long rebounds for Giddey to track down. That will also put Giddey in position to track down the ball and run in transition, helping him set up easy buckets for teammates in what should be a fast-paced game.

Giddey hit this line in two of four meetings against Golden State last season, averaging 17 rebounds + assists, and he finished with 14 in another. He also had a triple-double against the Warriors last March, finishing with 17 points, 11 rebounds, and 17 assists. That was with Gilgeous-Alexander in the lineup as well. You can back Giddey for a triple-double at +1100 on FanDuel.

Pick: Josh Giddey Over 14.5 REB + AST (-130)

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Sean Treppedi
Jun 15, 2024 UTC