NBA Player Props Today | Picks for LaMelo Ball, Ivica Zubac (Sunday, Jan. 14)

NBA Player Props Today | Sunday, Jan. 14

Tonight features a small four-game slate in the NBA. In the table below, you'll find my top two NBA player props for Sunday, January 14 including picks for LaMelo Ball and Ivica Zubac.

The best player to target in our prop model is LaMelo Ball. All of his under props are popping as elite values. Not only is Ball still on a minutes limit, but this is an extremely difficult matchup against the Heat. The Hornets are eight-point road underdogs, implied for only 107.5 points. They are also coming off a 36-point loss to the Spurs.

Ball's under points, rebounds, and assists prop looks the most intriguing in this matchup. Our prop model has Ball projected for 31.1 points, rebounds, and assists, which is well below his 36.5 prop line. In his first game back since Nov. 26, Ball recorded 28 points, five assists and three rebounds. However, he shot an uncharacteristic 16 free throws and made 15, which totaled over half of his points. Ball won't get that type of whistle against the Heat tonight.

Both the Hornets and Heat are dealing with a ton of injuries right now. The Hornets are without Gordon Hayward and Mark Williams, while PJ Washington and Brandon Miller are doubtful. Meanwhile Jimmy Butler is doubtful and Tyler Herro is questionable for the Heat. Regardless of who plays, this game will be a slugfest. The Heat play at the third-slowest pace in the league at 98.12 and are allowing the sixth-fewest points in the league at 111.6 per game.

The best line for this prop is at BetMGM at -115 and I would have no problem taking this prop down to 34.5 points, rebounds, and assists. There is a ton of risk in this spot for Ball. The limited playing time, difficult matchup, potential blowout, and working his way back from a long injury are all major concerns. Take the under on LaMelo Ball tonight.

Pick: LaMelo Ball Under 36.5 PTS + REB + AST (-115)

The best game on this small four-game slate from a viewing perspective is the Minnesota Timberwolves hosting the Los Angeles Clippers. A battle between two of the best teams in the Western Conference and two elite defenses. The Clippers are 1.5-point road favorites despite the Timberwolves holding a conference best 15-2 home record this year.

Most of the talk about the Clippers revolves around Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook rightfully so. However, the man in the middle has been a key part of their recent success and is going to need to play a big role tonight for the Clippers to come out on top. Ivica Zubac has averaged a massive double-double with 14.8 points and 11.4 rebounds per game in his last five games. Over that time, he is shooting 74% from the field.

Zubac will have to play great against the huge Timberwolves frontcourt that features Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. In his last seven games against the Timberwolves, Zubac is averaging exactly 10 points per game, which would put his over his points prop. With scoring double-digit points in five of his last six games, our prop model has Zubac projected for 12.3 points. He also has posted a 16.64% usage rate in that six-game stretch which is positive.

FanDuel has Zubac's points prop at 9.5 points, but other sportsbooks have it listed at 10.5. I would still take his over at 10.5 points, especially with the better odds. It may be a tough matchup against the Timberwolves frontcourt, but this line is simply too low for Zubac's recent production. Take Zubac to record double-digit points again tonight.

Pick: Ivica Zubac Over 9.5 Points (-132)

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