The NBA Playoffs resume this Thursday, as three crucial matchups take center stage tonight — and our NBA betting expert Joe Dellera has identified player prop picks showing significant value in all three of today's contests.
Let's get into the breakdown of his top NBA player props for Jamal Murray, Jonathan Kuminga, and Neemias Queta on Thursday, April 30.
NBA Player Props: Thursday, April 30
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Knicks vs. Hawks Player Prop: Jonathan Kuminga
Jonathan Kuminga Under 5.5 Rebounds & Assists (-110)
This is the "tip of the spear" play for tonight. Jonathan Kuminga hasn’t recorded more than one assist in any game this entire series—he has exactly three assists total across five games.
Kuminga isn’t looking to pass. his only goal when he touches the ball is to put up a shot in any way, shape, or form.
On the rebounding side, his defensive assignment is actually taking him out of the play. Atlanta is tasking him with fronting Karl-Anthony Towns to keep the ball out of his hands.
I’ll tell you right now: if you are fronting KAT, you are not getting the next rebound. It is just not going to happen. You’re sacrificing your positioning to play keep-away.
Even on the offensive end, it’s a tough ask. He’s taking more jump shots and threes, which makes it harder to track down his own misses, especially when he’s battling glass-cleaners like Mitchell Robinson, Josh Hart, and KAT. Those guys are excellent rebounders, and Kuminga just isn't prioritized there.
The most concerning part for Kuminga—and the best part for this under—is the downward mobility of his minutes. He played a series-low 17 minutes in Game 5. Whether that’s blowout-related or performance-related, the data is ugly: over the last two games, Kuminga is a -22.1 in net rating when he’s on the court.
Pick: Jonathan Kuminga Under 5.5 Rebounds & Assists (-110, bet365)
Celtics vs. 76ers Player Prop: Neemias Queta
Neemias Queta Over 7.5 Rebounds (+110)
I’m going back to one of the most reliable prop performers we’ve seen in these playoffs: Neemias Queta.
The logic here is simple: if Joel Embiid is on the floor, Boston has no choice but to play a legitimate big. You cannot just let Jayson Tatum get annihilated by Embiid on the defensive side of the ball for 40 minutes. You need a body there, and Queta is that body.
Queta is super athletic—he can switch everything, and that versatility sets him up in perfect positions to track down the basketball.
We’ve seen his rebounding totals increase in every single game in this series as he carves out a bigger role. In Game 4, he grabbed eight. Then in Game 5, he played 26 minutes and grabbed 14 rebounds on a massive 23 chances. That is a staggering amount of opportunity.
If Embiid plays a similar load to what we saw last game, Queta is going to be on the court, and he’s going to be active—and as long as he’s seeing moderate minutes, he’s shown he can clear this line with ease.
Pick: Neemias Queta Over 7.5 Rebounds (+110, bet365)
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Player Prop: Jamal Murray
Jamal Murray Over 25.5 Points (-118)
When I look at this series, the volume for Jamal Murray is undeniable—he’s consistently putting up 20 to 25 attempts. Even in the 17-point loss where he only took 17 shots, the intent was there, but in the other outings, it’s been 25 and 23.
In a must-win Game 6, Denver isn't going to play around. They aren't looking to pass the ball to role players; they want their two stars running pick-and-roll the entire game.
If you filter Murray’s performance this season for games where he takes at least 20 shots, he is averaging 32.7 points per game and has cleared this 25.5 line in 23 of 30 games. This isn't necessarily a bet on high-end efficiency—it’s a bet on pure volume.
Last game he finished with 24 points despite going 9-for-23 from the floor. If he’s going to get that many looks, he’s going to get there.
The matchup makes it even better. Mike Conley has to be on the floor for Minnesota a bunch lately, and I’m sorry, but Murray is just going to obliterate him. Whether it’s Conley, Bones Hyland, or Ayo Dosunmu in the pick-and-roll, Murray is going to cook them.
Denver showed us their hand in Game 5 by closing with their starters while up 20; they don't trust their bench and they aren't taking chances. Expect Murray to play basically 40 minutes again.
Pick: Jamal Murray Over 25.5 Points (-118, DraftKings)
