The conference round of the NBA Playoffs resumes with one standalone matchup on Monday night, as Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals between the Timberwolves and Thunder takes center stage at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Our staff of basketball betting experts dug into the latest odds and identified 4 NBA picks for tonight's contest. Continue below for our NBA best bets and predictions for Monday, May 26.
NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks, Predictions: Monday, May 26
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  | 8:30 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Thunder vs. Timberwolves
By Joe Dellera
The Timberwolves dominated Game 3 and they made a few stylistic changes to do so.
One of those changes was how they covered Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Wolves were meeting SGA further down the floor and they went under on 7 of his pick-and-rolls compared to 8 total in the first two games. This was also in just 27 minutes due to the blowout.
This was done in an effort to try and keep SGA from getting downhill to attack the basket, and it worked.
The one thing SGA can do to combat this is he can take a few more pull-up three-point attempts, and potentially force the defense to come up to him.
He was 2/5 from three-point range in Game 3, and while that’s not a ton of volume, this seems to be a shot Minnesota wants him to take.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-120)
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Thunder vs. Timberwolves
History hasn’t been too kind to teams coming off a blowout playoff loss of 40 or more points. Teams in this spot are just 5-8 straight up and against the spread, while the total is 10-3 to the under.
Those numbers suggest that a lopsided defeat can provide the momentum the Timberwolves need to get back in this Western Conference Finals.
Minnesota just needed a bit of reassurance that it could hang with the Thunder. After all, the teams split the season series with two games apiece.
Playing on the road won’t be particularly easy for OKC inside the raucous Target Center. As a result, I’d be looking to fade the Thunder team when it comes to their player props.
One player who stands out is Jalen Williams, who has a points + rebounds + assists prop of 32.5. Williams has stayed under this prop line in four of his last five away games.
Against the Timberwolves, the OKC guard has also failed to cover this line in five straight meetings on the road.
Given that the total opened around 217.5, the bookmakers aren’t expecting this game to be too high-scoring.
As a result, once we allocate OKC’s projected team total across its players, it’s difficult to see how Williams goes over this prop line tonight.
Pick: Jalen Williams Under 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-138)
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Thunder vs. Timberwolves
Game 3 was an total blowout, but in my opinion, it wasn't indicative of where this series is ultimately headed.
In both conference finals series, I leaned toward the team down 0-2 in Game 3, and then both favorites in Game 4, giving us 3-1 on each side.
Will it happen that way? Just because we're halfway there doesn't mean so, but I'm sticking with that position for now.
OKC is just better. Minnesota got their desperation effort out of the way, historic as it was.
I'm expecting a refocused, defensive-minded OKC team, who will be once again swarming the passing lanes and won't emerge from the locker rooms like they're content with a 2-0 lead.
Minnesota made 20-of-40 from three-point range, out-rebounded OKC 50-31, and forced four more turnovers in Game 3.
Can they repeat that? I doubt it.
I'll take the better team in a bounce-back spot in Game 4 tonight, and will likely be back on OKC in Game 5, regardless of the outcome here, health willing.
Pick: Thunder -3 (-110)
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Thunder vs. Timberwolves
Conley has been one of the lone consistent pieces for the Wolves in this series against the Thunder.
His veteran ability to be in the right place and keep the basketball geometry of the Wolves in sync has been key.
