Saturday NBA Player Prop Bets and Picks: Now or Never for Nikola Jokic (Sept. 26)

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Saturday's player props come from Game 5 of the Western Conference finals:

• Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers at 9 p.m. ET
  

NBA Player Prop Bets

Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic

The Prop: Over 9.5 Rebounds (-128)

In six elimination games this postseason, Jokic is averaging 13 rebounds per game. While one can note the matchup difference between the Clippers, where he hauled in at least 14 in each of the three knockout games, and the Lakers, who are loaded with size, there is still a strong edge.

The Denver big man has gotten an inconsistent whistle all series and has had to be a bit timid in his approach on the floor, constantly being shuffled in and out of the lineup due to foul trouble. He has at least four fouls in each game, but in Game 5, with nothing to lose, expect Malone to lean on Jokic no matter the situation.

It’s likely that the Nuggets are going to go down with their two-man game of Jokic and Jamal Murray and I expect to see a very active Joker in this one. The Player Prop Tool gives this a 10/10 rating and I would play this all the way up to -140.

As of Saturday morning, BetMGM has the best price in the U.S.

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Los Angeles Lakers, LeBron James

The Prop: Over 26.5 Points (-110)

As of this writing, Anthony Davis is questionable for Game 5 with a sprained ankle. If Davis doesn’t play, this is a must play as LeBron is going to have to do it all for the Lakers to compete with the Nuggets, and I would bet it up to 29.5 points.

However, I expect Davis to play with the stakes this high, even if his ankle is bothering him, which in turn should put more of a burden on James to score. LeBron has been deferring to his star teammate at times during this series, but even though it seems like he is being passive, he is averaging more than 26 per game. Take out the Game 1 blowout in which he only scored 15, James is averaging over 27 per game through the first four.

For the Lakers to win, James and Davis are going to need to combine for at least 60 or hope for an outlier performance from a role player. That being said, LBJ will probably take things into his own hands in Game 5 in order to finish this series.

While our FantasyLabs tool is not expecting James to go over this mark, projecting him for 26 points against the implied total of 26.8, I think that the context of Davis playing hurt — or not at all — should drive this total up. I would play this to 27.5 at -115.

FanDuel has 26.5 with the over at -114, which is the best line available as of Saturday morning.

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Los Angeles Lakers, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

The Prop: Over 9.5 Points (-118)

Caldwell-Pope has solidified himself as a crunch-time player for LA and has become the benefactor of Denver selling out to stop LeBron and AD. While he is shooting well above expectation, 52% from the field and 42% from deep, KCP has earned minutes and will see the ball in his hands with James and Davis kicking out of double teams. He has seemingly replaced Danny Green as the third fiddle in this Lakers offense and top perimeter threat.

This is a low water mark, and Caldwell-Pope has hit this number in each game this series while playing over 30 minutes per game. The shots are going to be there for the Lakers wing and even if he cools off from the field, he should get enough shots to break double digits

The Player Prop tool forecasts KCP to score more than 11 in this game and gives this a 9/10 rating. I would play this prop up to -130, but would also be content riding over 10.5 at any number better than +100.

As of Saturday morning, BetMGM has the best price in the U.S.

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