The playoffs are here. No more load management. No more sleepy Tuesdays in Charlotte. Just bracketed basketball mayhem, and we’re hitting the ground running with our best bets for every first-round series — sourced directly from the sharpest voices in the game (and the group chats you wish you were in).
The action tips off Saturday at 1:00 p.m. ET with Pacers vs. Bucks, and from there it's a full weekend of chaos, contrarian takes, and, yes, probably a few “Dillon Brooks just hit what??” moments.
Below, you’ll find the most thoughtful (and occasionally unhinged) wagers from Brandon Anderson, Michael Fiddle, Matt Moore, Joe Dellera, Jim Turvey, Gilles Gallant, and Bryan Fonseca — complete with supporting quotes pulled straight from the Buckets First-Round Mega-Pod. No guesswork, no filters. Just smart bets, said out loud, with receipts.
Let’s get weird.
🧠 Brandon Anderson
Pacers -5.5 vs Bucks
“Those teams are covering only 39% of the time… and just 30% since 2016.”
• Historical trend against teams like the Bucks this year.
• 📉 Brandon framed it as the “most lopsided trend” they’ve found.
Myles Turner Over 2.5 Threes (+152)
“He had 28 attempts in four games this season against Milwaukee… and seven a game in the playoffs last year.”
• Brandon calls it one of his favorite escalator bets.
• 🔥 Bucks drop defense creates volume.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 Turnovers (plus money)
“He’s got more turnovers than assists in this stretch.”
• That quote is directly from his argument for Pistons ML parlay.
• Brandon added it to a two-leg prop at +500.
Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 Threes (+116)
“He’s gone over two and a half threes 58% of the time… and 65% since March 1st.”
• 🎯 Joe brought it up, Brandon agreed it was strong.
Pistons Moneyline (+360)
“I said I would make this more like +140.”
• “I think this is just a massive misprice.”
🎙️ Matt Moore
Christian Braun Over 13.5 Points (-110)
“He was able to get easy opportunities over and over and over again.”
• 💥 Described Braun as someone who can take advantage of the Clippers’ focus on Jokic.
• “He’s going to get those easy looks again.”
Christian Braun 20+ Points Escalator (+450)
“If you want to go up, I don’t mind it… He’s going to play real minutes.”
• ⏱️ Matt expects Braun’s role to expand with the bench shortened.
Nikola Jokić 2+ Made Threes (-160)
“Zubac is one of the few bigs who can go one-on-one in the post.”
• That pushes Jokic out of the post and into more pick-and-pop.
• 🌩️ Matt is betting on the matchup dictating shot profile.
Nikola Jokić 3+ Made Threes (+190)
“If he makes the first two, he’s going to take five or six.”
• 📈 A rhythm-based escalator — Matt said it’s worth a shot.
Magic +14.5 vs Celtics
“I make it 11… even without giving Orlando credit for having Franz and Paolo back.”
• ✨ Matt called it a number grab purely based on line disparity.
🎙️ Joe Dellera
Dante DiVincenzo Series Threes Leader (+2000)
“He’s gone over 2.5 threes in 58% of games and 65% since March 1st.”
• 🧨 Joe’s best longshot — emphasized role + volume.
Anthony Edwards vs LeBron Assists (+175)
“Ant had 8 assists in the last Lakers game. LeBron’s assist rate plummets when Reaves and Luka are in.”
• 🎯 He broke down both sides of the matchup and found Ant undervalued.
Anthony Edwards Most Assists in Series (+1500)
“You can get a long number and it correlates with what he has to do to beat the Lakers.”
• Joe's high on Ant as the primary initiator this series.
Franz Wagner Rebounds Leader vs Celtics (+1600)
“Boston’s going to make it a gang-rebound situation — Franz is gonna grab them.”
• 🍀 Joe believes Boston’s shooting profile favors rebound chances for wings.
Payton Pritchard Threes Leader vs Magic (+1400)
“He’s going to be on the floor, he’s going to shoot threes… he’s not bashful.”
• 😤 Confidence + volume play.
Malik Beasley Threes Leader vs Knicks (-155)
“He’s the guy they’re going to let get threes up.”
• Joe’s pick based on expected defensive priorities.
Jokic Series Threes Leader (+3000)
“He’s taking more of them. Zubac plays him straight up and Jokic floats more.”
• 🏹 Matchup-based increase in attempts.
Norman Powell Series Threes Leader (+550)
“It’s kind of a value dart… but the volume is there.”
• Joe’s looking for someone who can catch fire.
Giannis 30+ Points Every Game vs Pacers (+1150)
“If he plays, it’s every game 30+… If he doesn’t, you get voided.”
• 🧯 Joe framed it as a bet with injury protection.
📊 Jim Turvey
Luka to Lead Series in Rebounds (+650)
“Luka led Dallas in rebounds most of the season.”
• Jim emphasized Luka’s floor time and rebounding rate.
• ⛏️ Called it “one of my favorite series leader bets.”
Julius Randle to Lead Series in Rebounds (+3000)
“Wouldn’t be surprised if he cleared 12 a game.”
• 📦 Jim floated this as a classic buy-low opportunity.
Nas Reid to Lead Series in Rebounds (+6000)
“That number is just too long.”
• 💣 Pure longshot dart — but he’s live in small-ball lineups.
Anthony Edwards to Lead Series in Rebounds (+1300)
“I just like betting on Ant.”
• 🏀 If Gobert plays fewer minutes, Ant becomes the chaos rebounder.
Austin Reaves Under 5.8 Assists (Postseason)
“He’s not going to be on the ball. He’s going to be in the corner watching Luka.”
• 🔒 Usage + role prediction from Jim, who loves this under.
Timberwolves to Win Series 4-2 (+500)
“I just think the Wolves get this one at home and then finish it in six.”
• 🧊 Jim talked through the game script path and picked this exact result.
Orlando +3.5 Games vs Celtics (-150)
“This team’s built to cover games — even if they lose the series.”
• 👊 Jim believes Orlando can be physical and keep margins tight.
Orlando +2.5 Games vs Celtics (+320)
“I’m going to ladder it a bit.”
• ⚙️ Building alt bets based on confidence in series competitiveness.
Rockets Game 1 + Warriors Series (+260)
“I think Houston sneaks Game 1… but Golden State will eventually figure them out.”
• 📉 Perfect example of correlated outcome betting.
Clippers to Win Series 4-2 (+410)
“I’m looking at that 4-2 at over 4 to 1.”
• 🧮 Said it in the context of home court swinging mid-series.
Jokic 40+ Points Any Game (+120)
“I just trust him in these matchups.”
• 🔥 Simple, confident call based on gameplan reliability.
Jokic 45+ Points Any Game (+520)
“I don’t mind taking the alt escalator there.”
• Just a stretched version of the 40+ play — lower stake, higher reward.
💥 Gilles Gallant
Jason Tatum Over 14.5 Rebounds + Assists (-110)
“He’s cleared this in three of the four meetings with Orlando this season.”
• 🔍 Clear history vs the same opponent.
• “He’s going to play 40 minutes if this game’s close.”
Kevin Porter Jr. Over 3.5 Assists (-115)
“I think over three and a half assists at -115 makes sense here.”
• “I just think he's going to have the ball in his hands.”
Jalen Brunson Under 2.5 Threes (-120)
“Three for 21 in his last four Game 1s.”
• “He’s just not an efficient three point shooter. And that’s not really how he gets his points.”
• 🧊 One of Gilles’ favorite unders on the board.
📣 Bryan Fonseca
Knicks to Lead 2-1 After 3 Games vs Pistons (+110)
“The Knicks tend to jump out early.”
• Bryan said this during the group’s Game 1 breakdown.
• 🗽 Described Knicks’ ability to protect home floor early in series.
Knicks to Win Series in 6 (+470)
“I think the Pistons will probably split at the Garden and I think the Knicks will probably split at Detroit.”
• Bryan is projecting a 2–2 start → Knicks close in 6.
• 🔢 He chose 6 as the likeliest finish, not based on trend, just read.
3-Series Over 5.5 Games Parlay (+226)
“All of these feel like 6 or 7 gamers.”
• 💥 The series Bryan included: Wolves-Lakers, Warriors-Rockets, Nuggets-Clippers.
• “There are no easy outs in this bracket.”
🎯 Michael Fiddle
Clippers at Nuggets Over 224.5
“From a model perspective, I have it at 231.7… I like this number really to 226.”
• 🧠 Fiddle recommends full unit at 224.5, down to half a unit at 225.5.
• “The open has started to come back up. I think that’s very telling.”
Warriors +1.5 at Rockets
“I think this line closes pick’em, Warriors -1.5 is where I would have this priced.”
• 🔥 Fiddle emphasized pricing movement and home/road logic.
• “The consistent Warriors movement — I think once the limits open — closes around -1 or -1.5.”
