NBA Sharp Betting Picks (Dec. 4): Pros Hitting Over/Unders in Heat vs. Celtics, Lakers vs. Jazz
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LeBron James
- Sharp action is hitting two of the biggest games on tonight's NBA slate.
- The Action Network's tools reveal how the pros are playing over/unders in Heat-Celtics and Lakers-Jazz.
Ten games will tip off in the NBA tonight, including at least one intriguing matchup in each conference.
The East will see a meeting of its second- and fourth-place teams — the Heat and Celtics, respectively — and the West will get an even better one: the first-place Lakers visiting the third-place Jazz.
An influx of recreational action should keep those games hovering around the top of the list of most heavily bet NBA games tonight. But as for sharps, they aren’t so concerned with the excitement surrounding the games they bet, they’re simply looking for value.
On occasion, though, that value will land on the biggest games of the night … and tonight is one of those occasions.
Heat vs. Celtics
7:30 p.m. ET | SUN
On the heels of their 11-point win in Toronto last night, the Heat enter Boston as 5.5-point underdogs despite their superior record. It’s not the spread that has drawn the most one-sided sharp action, however.
This total opened at 213 — already a somewhat low number — but is now down to just 209.5 across most of the market. The under has been the popular bet, but a 57% backing generally isn’t one that’s going to cause a 3.5-point move, unless some other factors come into play … like sharp action.
Odds as of Wednesday at 2:20 p.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
The 57% of bets on the under have generated 83% of actual money being wagered on the total, meaning bigger bettors (the ones more likely to be sharps) are among that majority.
Confirming that to be the case, three Sports Insights’ Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market-moving sharp action — have been triggered on the under at lines ranging from 212.5 to 211.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 213 to 209.5) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Lakers vs. Jazz
9 p.m. ET | NBA TV
While the sharp angle in the game above was made pretty clear by the drastic line movement, this game has been a bit tougher to decipher.
Sharps are once again going after the total, but they didn’t hit it right away, meaning the movement from the opening number (211.5) to the current line (212) isn’t exactly going to catch the eye.
An initial wave of heavy money on the under dropped this total to around 208.5, though no Bet Signals were tracked across that fall. Instead, it seems sharps pounced on the adjusted line, thinking that the opener was a more accurate projection.
Since the number hit that low-water mark, three Bet Signals have revealed pro action on the over at lines of 208.5, 209.5 and 211, convincing oddsmakers to not only return to their original line, but surpass it.
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 208.5 to 212) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]