NBA Betting Tip: How to Profit from Late-Season Tanking
Photo credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Trae Young
- With NBA All-Star weekend approaching, the playoff race is becoming more clear, especially for teams at the bottom of the league.
- Has there been value in fading tanking teams late in the season? Yes -- see the BetLabs Pro System below.
Buy-in to Zion? Quit tryin’ for Zion? Still workshopping mottos here, but there’s no doubt teams will try to get into the running for the top overall pick in this summer’s NBA Draft.
Sure, the lottery odds are flattened this year — the bottom-three teams will all have a 14.0% chance at the first pick instead of descending odds of 25.0%, 19.9% and 15.6%, respectively — but I’m not sure that will stop the tanking.
What else do the Knicks have to play for other than increasing their odds, even if it’s to a much smaller degree than before?
And thankfully for bettors, there’s historically been value late in the season betting against tanking teams.
How to Profit Off NBA Tanking Teams
One of the Pro Trends available via our Bet Labs software is called “Fade Tanking Teams,” and it shows that tanking teams — specifically home underdogs — have been overvalued by the betting market:
As you can see, this system has hit at a 57.6% rate since 2004, good for a robust 12.3% Return on Investment (ROI). If you had placed $100 on every match, you would be up $7,976. This system has been profitable in 12 of the 14 seasons prior to this year.
What makes this system even more compelling is that it’s grading against the closing line — which means it’s truly finding an inefficiency in the market. It doesn’t grab a line when there’s a sudden injury; it grades it against the line after the market has readjusted.
Follow Injury News
So even if you’re skeptical this system will be profitable in 2018-19 because of the new lottery odds, there will still be value in betting against tanking teams — specifically in following news.
There will likely be some nights when the Phoenix Suns don’t push their young star Devin Booker, and there will be a moment before the market adjusts at which you’ll be able to grab the other side. Without Booker on the floor, the Suns offense has been 10.3 points per 100 possessions worse — that’s one of the most drastic marks in the league.
Make sure to add this Bet Labs Pro System, but also make sure to follow our NBA news feed and get the fastest injury information in the business. Between following the system or grinding injury news, there will certainly be times for bettors to take advantage of the NBA’s race for the bottom.
Tonight’s System Match
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention: There’s a match tonight in Lakers (-5) at Hawks.