Nuggets vs Clippers Prediction, Pick Tonight | Best Bet for Monday
Pictured: Paul George (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)
Nuggets vs Clippers Prediction, Picks for Monday, Nov. 27
*Editor's Note: This was published before Nikola Jokic was ruled OUT for tonight's contest.
Here's everything you need to know about Nuggets vs Clippers on Monday, Nov. 27 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Nuggets travel from Denver to face the Clippers on Monday. The Nuggets eked out a close win in their first meeting of the season 111-108 in an In-Season Tournament game.
The Nuggets look to make it two in a row against L.A. while the Clippers will try to exact some home revenge on Denver who is on a back-to-back after a win against the Spurs Sunday night.
Aaron Gordon missed Sunday’s game with a heel injury and Nikola Jokic was listed on the injury report ahead of Sunday’s game despite getting the okay and playing 34 minutes.
Let's get to our Nuggets vs Clippers prediction and pick.
Nuggets vs Clippers Prediction
Pick: Nikola Jokic Over Rebounds | Clippers -4.5
The Clippers have set a personal record! After Saturday’s win against the Mavericks, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have officially played in 15 consecutive games together. Unfortunately for Clippers fans, that’s something that hasn’t happened in the five seasons since George came over from Oklahoma City. It’s no secret their legacy has been mired in injury and disappointment, even since they’ve added two more multi-time All-Stars and MVP winners in Russell Westbrook and more recently, James Harden.
The Harden experiment had a slow start with Los Angeles losing its first five games, but things have slowly started to mesh thanks to improved defense and Harden looking more comfortable in the offense. Since the losing start, the Clippers are 4-1 with Harden carving out more of a role as a distributor, averaging 8.6 assists compared to just 4.2 in his first five games in L.A.
However, the Clippers are still overvalued at times. They ran the Mavericks off the floor on Saturday and they did the same to the Spurs a week ago, but despite two impressive wins, they’ve either lost, or kept teams close as a favorite. They’re just 2-3 ATS over their last five games despite the overall improvement.
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The Clippers' struggles generally come against bigger, more physical teams. Recent losses came from the Pelicans with Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas, the Grizzlies with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Bismack Biyombo and the Nuggets with Jokic and Gordon. The Clippers handle the smaller, wing-heavy teams, but size is where they run into trouble.
Enter Jokic—a guy that has dominated this matchup historically. Since the 2020-21 season, Jokic has averaged 27 points, 13.2 rebounds and 8.2 assists. Clippers center Ivica Zubac just isn’t up to the task of handling the sheer size of Jokic in the paint or his shooting touch on the perimeter and in the short midrange.
In fact the Nuggets as a team have dominated the Clippers since their Western Conference Bubble collapse after being up 3-1 on Denver and just one win away from the Bubble Finals. Since then, the Nuggets are 10-2 straight up and 7-5 against the spread. They’re 5-1 straight up without Jamal Murray.
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Nuggets vs Clippers Picks, Odds
I was on the Jokic rebounds train when these two teams met on Nov. 14 and I see no reason to run away from it if he plays. With the Nuggets on a back-to-back there’s always the chance he sits, especially since he was listed on the injury report ahead of Sunday’s game. If he plays, take the over on his rebounds prop at any number the books put out there and a ladder play is always a good option with Jokic.
Despite the Denver dominance, I lean pretty heavily to the Clippers regardless of Jokic's status. The Clippers will struggle to contain the big man, but the rest of the team will have trouble with the size and skill of the Clippers. Without Murray running the second unit, Denver lacks the depth to keep up with the Clippers in the non-Jokic minutes.
I might look to play the Clippers in the second quarter too, but I'll hold off for now. Follow me on the Action Network app (AOWatts13) to see how I play the rest of this matchup.