Why is Everyone Overreacting to the OG Anunoby Trade?

NBA Hipster Twitter favorite OG Anunoby was finally traded.

He's a New York Knick, and the supposed haul he was going to go for is as follows: RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and a second-round pick.

Anunoby doesn't go to the Knicks alone, otherwise their depth would be depleted. What's that? Precious Achuiwa and Malachi Flynn… Ah, so the Knicks depth still needs work.

Graphs and Decimals Twitter has long had love for the possible ceiling of Anunoby, analyzing him with an alarming curiosity. It's as if he's been in Panathinaikos or Virtus Bologna in EuroLeague over the last seven seasons and not right in front of our faces in the NBA.

Anunoby, who is 26 years old and in his seventh season, is entering free agency after the season. ESPN's Bobby Marks notes that he is eligible for $117 million for four years today, and for two years and $40 million starting on New Year's Eve. He smartly should sign neither and sign for (likely) more money later.

I'm not sure what this best-case scenario for Anunoby is or how likely it is he realize it with the Knicks next to Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson under Tom Thibodeau, but let's play this out.

Firstly, fair gamble for the Knicks, who are out of the Barrett business and were unwilling to extend Quickley, to move for a player in Anunoby who is highly coveted and, theoretically, will better complement Brunson and Randle … we think.

Anunoby, since breaking through as a core Raptor in his fourth NBA season, has averaged 16.4 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists with 1.6 steals per contest on 47/38/79 shooting splits. Quietly, he has missed 82 games over his last 3.4 seasons — which goes back to the start of 2020-21 and includes the roughly 37-ish percent of what we've completed in 2023-24.

He's also logged about 35 minutes per game each of his last four seasons, but you know, his ceiling is vastly higher, supposedly. Anunoby led the NBA in steals and was All-Defense last season, both things coach Thibs will appreciate.

This season? He's down to 15.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists (tied for a career-high) and 1.0 steals per game on 49/37/72 shooting.

Anunoby is highly regarded as a versatile defender and for great reason, though it's been an awkward Raptors season overall and on that end this year. He's a great role player.

Is that enough for the Knicks to win the deal?

The last player who occupied a similar space in his career and was subsequently moved was Mikal Bridges, who was dealt memorably from the Phoenix Suns to the Brooklyn Nets in different circumstances as part of the Kevin Durant trade.

Is Anunoby better than Bridges?

Before being moved to Brooklyn, Bridges had a two-year stretch of 13.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.1 steals per game on 54/40/84 shooting. Bridges, like Anunoby, also developed a reputation for his elite defense. In 56 games with the Suns last year before the deal, he jumped to 17.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.2 steals per game on 46/39/88.

In 59 games as a Net, he's put up 23.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game on 47/37/86. So, for Bridges, more was there.

But do Bridges Brooklyn numbers matter given the situation Anunoby is joining a situation that's a 2 or 3 Train ride away, where he — unlike Bridges — won't go from being No. 3 or No. 4 to No. 1 (or 1B with Cam Thomas)?

It's more than likely that Anunoby occupies a similar role he already did, given that he'll be next to Brunson and Randle. Sure, it's less clunky than what Anunoby felt up north with Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam … then again, you have Randle, so we'll see.

Anunoby — who is 26 and in his seventh NBA season — has long been treated as this underdeveloped mystery. Maybe he is, but if he is, is the New York environment where his best self will be realized? How do we know that?

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Furthermore, the Knicks lose Quickley and Barrett. Barrett was in a clunky situation in New York, and it'll be even clunkier next to Barnes and Siakam until the latter is eventually dealt this season, assuming this begins a full rebuild in Toronto.

So good for the Knicks to find a better fit, especially with Barrett due $25.8, $27.7 and $29.6 million after this season. (I still think he can be redeemable, but who knows.) But Sixth Man of the Year candidate Quickley was the punch off the bench for this team, who improved his perimeter defense, and is only in year four of his career — like Anunoby, without an extension.

The other piece of this is the Knicks have to extend Anunoby this summer if it gets there. Reportedly, he was seeking $40 million per year, and in reality, the deal could get somewhat close to max territory if he plays well.

And around Brunson and Randle, you'd rather pay Anunoby. I've noted that the Knicks were primed for a major move given the unique situation of not having any max contracts on their books, along with draft capital.

So the best case scenario with Anunoby is what? A couple extra wins?

No — the best case scenario is that this is the move before the move, because the Knicks still have ammo.

Maybe you want to take a future on them to win the Eastern Conference now in the event that they do make that follow-up move — but what would that look like?

Joel Embiid probably isn't happening right now. Giannis Antetokoumnpo isn't going anywhere. And why would the Minnesota Timberwolves move Karl-Anthony Towns at the moment?

Is it Donovan Mitchell? Fine — let's do it. Evan Fournier's contract, Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride, Jericho Sims, and another mid-salary (let's say Donte DiVincenzo or Josh Hart) plus the requisite (and hefty) draft pick compensation gets you Mitchell.

OK, then what?

Mitchell Robinson is out for the season, so is the combination of Brunson and Mitchell — a backcourt of two shot creators who are under 6-foot-2 (that I really like!) along with Anunoby, Randle and Isaiah Hartenstein — enough to topple the Sixers, Celtics, Bucks and Heat out East? Is it enough next year when Robinson comes back? Will Robinson be healthy enough for long enough for us to find out? Will Anunoby?

So let's say Anunoby is awesome, then what? Are they suddenly a title darkhorse? If the pivot deal isn't Mitchell but it's Fournier, Grimes and picks for Dejounte Murray, then what? Ooooh! Murray is a lockdown defender — well… he was a good one in San Antonio. Can he rediscover that? If he's having trouble off-ball in Atlanta with Trae Young, he probably will with Brunson, Randle and Anunoby, right?

So yes, the deal leads to more questions. Anunoby is a better fit, let's grant the team from my city that. The Knicks will be fun and pretty good. That's a good thing. But in today's NBA, the questions always come back to "Are you good enough to win a title?" Maybe we look up in three years and the Knicks have a title because of this, or maybe we look up and Quickley is the best player from this deal leading the Raptors — with Barnes — back into deep playoff runs.

But we've gotten way too excited freaking out about this deal, when in reality, it probably hasn't changed much in the context of who's a contender and who's not.

Perhaps the Knicks will eventually do something to change that, or maybe someone else does between now and the trade deadline on February 8, but nothing's changed dramatically yet.