The Indiana Pacers (1-0) and New York Knicks (0-1) will face off in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Knicks are 6-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread (Knicks -6), with the over/under set at 224.5 total points. New York is a -250 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +205 to pull off the upset.
The Choke Redux. The ICBMake. The Top Of The Garden Bomb.
Whatever you want to call it, the Tyrese Haliburton one-bounce to force overtime in the first matchup of this series left its mark in sports history. No one will forget where they were when Haliburton hit that shot if the Pacers win the series. However, if the Knicks win, it was just a wild loss on the way to an Eastern Conference Championship, a small blemish on a great season. But only if they win.
Can New York rally after blowing a 17-point fourth quarter lead? Or was it always Indiana, all along? Let's get into my Pacers vs. Knicks predictions and NBA picks for Friday, May 23.
Pacers vs. Knicks Picks, Prediction for Eastern Conference Finals Game 2
My Pacers vs. Knicks Game 2 best bet is split between Indiana to cover the spread and Indiana moneyline, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Pacers +6 (-110) / Pacers Moneyline (+205)
Pacers vs. Knicks Odds for Friday, May 23
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 224.5 -110 / -110 | +205 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 224.5 -110 / -110 | -250 |
- Pacers vs. Knicks spread: Knicks -6
- Pacers vs. Knicks over/under: 224.5 total points
- Pacers vs. Knicks moneyline: Pacers +205, Knicks -250
- Pacers vs. Knicks best bet: Pacers +6 / Pacers ML
Pacers vs. Knicks Eastern Conference Finals Game 2 Preview
Let’s start with the zig-zag. The theory goes that if a team loses the first game, bet them in Game 2. The market tends to overreact to whoever won, so you get value on the other side, yada, yada. And the market reflects that now more than ever.
The line has moved towards Knicks by between a half-point and point from Knicks -5 to -6 in the market as of this writing.
- Favorites coming off a loss in the playoffs when the line has moved at least a half-point in their direction from the previous game are 79-32 SU and 59-44-2 ATS since 2003. It’s gotten better over time as well. Those teams are 33-17-1 (66%) since 2019-20.
- Teams coming off a loss in Game 2 as home favorites overall are 56-39-1 ATS (59%). That trend dissipates in the conference finals, however. Those teams are just 8-6 SU and 5-9 ATS.
- Teams after Round 1 who are more than a possession favorite (-4.5 or shorter) are 51-34-1 ATS (60%).
This is a unique circumstance with the blown lead and the resulting overtime loss.
Home favorites coming off an overtime loss in the conference finals are 2-5 SU and 2-5 ATS. If we expand to all rounds after the first round, those teams are 13-13 SU and 9-16-1 ATS (36%).
- Teams that led by more than 15 points and lost at home are 5-4 SU and 2-7 ATS if the next game is also played at home.
- Teams coming off an overtime loss overall in the playoffs are 38-49-2 ATS (44%).
I’ll also note that favorites off an overtime loss who did not cover are 10-20 SU in those games.
So, if you like the Knicks, you should lay the points. Winning favorites off an overtime loss are 36-10 (78%) ATS.
Tactically, you can point to the Knicks’ 17-point fourth quarter lead as evidence that they outplayed the Pacers and that this was a fluke loss.
The problem with that logic is that it also would mean that the Knicks should not have beaten Boston, and maybe they shouldn’t have, and they did anyway.
The Knicks were outshot from 3-point range, outpaced in points off turnovers, soundly beaten in fastbreak points (13-5), and shockingly, beaten in second-chance points (23-21).
New York attempted to beat the Pacers at their own game, pushing the pace and trying to outrun Indiana.
Since Indiana is different from the Knicks and actually plays more than seven humans, this was not a great strategy, and New York was clearly gassed down the stretch.
New York was -3.9 in transition +/- per Cleaning The Glass, which means that their transition offense was 0.39 points worse per possession than average halfcourt offense across those possessions. That’s nightmarish.
Regarding the total, I had the under in last game, and then watched the Pacers shoot 78% in the first quarter. So long, under!
But here’s the thing. Between the start of the second quarter after that ridiculous start as both teams got a feel for the other, and the three-minute mark of the fourth quarter when all hell broke loose, the two teams held a 221-total scoring pace.
Yes, this means I’m saying that if you just take out the great scoring stretches, they didn’t score great. Bear with me.
That middle part of the game is likely more indicative of how the scoring pace for this game will go. Shooting variance killed the under immediately, the fourth-quarter insanity exacerbated it, and overtime was icing on the cake.
I never like to assume coaches will be rational in their adjustments, especially not Tom Thibodeau, but there’s just no way the Knicks go into this game with the same, “Let’s prove to them we can run” game plan from last game.
You have to get the Pacers to go against a set halfcourt offense to have any chance.
Indiana, similarly, rushed things too much in the second and third quarters. They will likely slow down a little bit to ensure execution, reduce missed layups, and avoid turnovers.
However, the trends scream over.
- The over is 60-43-3 (58%) in games after an overtime game in the playoffs overall, and 11-5 in the conference finals.
- The over in Game 2s after the previous game went over the total by more than 20 points is 50-18 (73%); by more than 30 points, it is 12-6.
Pacers vs. Knicks Betting Predictions for Game 2
Pacers +6 (-110) / Pacers Moneyline (+205)
The Knicks have a lot of levers they can pull even with this short rotation, but Tom Thibodeau also opted to pull the wrong ones at the wrong times.
He subbed in Mitchell Robinson late in the fourth quarter to try and establish the rim protection and rebounding advantage. But that just allowed Indiana to put him into every action.
Most of the Aaron Nesmith DHO pull-up threes were in actions with Robinson.
I liked Indiana on both the spread and moneyline last game. I made that game Knicks -0.7, under a point, and we also gave out overtime on the Buckets Podcast.
The problem with Game 2 is that I can’t really adjust power rating off that performance. It was basically exactly what I projected. I can’t upgrade or downgrade either team off that game.
I can give the Knicks a one-point bump for the zig-zag motivational spot, and I still don’t get close to this number.
Home teams off a loss in Game 2 as more than 4-point favorites have an ATS differential of +3.4. But even if I give the Knicks a massive 3.4-point bump for the spot, I still only make this Knicks -4.7, which is shorter than the current line.
So I’m betting Indiana again. I think the Pacers truly have the ability to come in and take both from the Knicks. I’ll bet lower units on it, but I have to be on that side.
Aaron Nesmith Under 4.5 Rebounds (+120)
Nesmith is going to be the primary defender on Jalen Brunson in this series.
That results in one of two ways on possessions.
Either he’s defending Brunson on jumpers and floaters and is too far away to rebound, or he’s in foul trouble.
Josh Hart Over 10.5 Rebounds (+105)
Hart is a monster on the glass. I like double-double too, but he came up just short with eight points last game, and the Knicks offense gets so Brunson-centric some of those possessions are hard to find.
He’ll continue to smash the glass, however.
Andrew Nembhard Under 16.5 Points + Assists (-110)
Nembhard was at just 11 before overtime in the series opener. He’s facing a tough matchup with the Wingstop defenders.
The bigger thing is actually Tyrese Haliburton, though.
Nembhard has thrived when the Pacers have given him on-ball pick-and-rolls, while the Pacers take advantage of neutralizing the coverage teams put on Haliburton (blitz, switches, etc.).
But in the first matchup of this series, the Knicks played drop coverage against Haliburton, and he torched them.
If they do that again, Haliburton’s usage goes up, which means Nembhard’s goes down.
Mikal Bridges Over 3.5 Assists (-125)
Do not play this above 3.5, but I’m fine with whatever juice is at 3.5.
Bridges is the primary on-ball creator in the scant non-Brunson minutes, and he’s gone over this line in nine straight matchups against Indiana.
Pacers vs. Knicks Game 2 Best Bets
- Pacers +6 (-110) / Pacers Moneyline (+205)
- Aaron Nesmith Under 4.5 Rebounds (+120)
- Josh Hart Over 10.5 Rebounds (+105)
- Andrew Nembhard Under 16.5 Points + Assists (-110)
- Mikal Bridges Over 3.5 Assists (-125)
Pacers vs. Knicks Betting Trends
