PropBetGuy’s Friday NBA Player Prop Bet: How to Play Jalen Brunson in Mavericks vs. Suns Game 3

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Jalen Brunson Under 18.5 Points (-125)

Dynamics and individual production can shift drastically in the NBA playoffs. Case and point has been with Jalen Brunson thus far in the second round.

In Games 4-6 against the Jazz in Round 1, when Luka Doncic was also active, Brunson carved up Utah for 23.7 points per game, a 28% usage rate and 20.3 drives per game.

So far in the two games against the Suns, Brunson has only 22 points combined and a 24% usage rate while driving the ball only 11.5 times per game.

Of course, this is a tiny sample size. But Brunson’s drop-off in production and effectiveness does jive with the Suns’ defensive philosophy. Phoenix coach Monty Williams has been steadfast in wanting to defend Luka Doncic one-on-one while taking away the Mavs' secondary offensive options.

And despite Doncic putting up 80 points in the two games so far, Phoenix takes a 2-0 series lead into Game 3.

The Suns’ superior on-ball defense is making Brunson’s life difficult on his drives to the basket. His point-per-drive production has dropped off from 0.70 to 0.49 in the series.

This, coupled with the decreased usage and touches, should make it difficult for the Villanova product to reclaim his scoring prowess.

I have Brunson pegged at 15 points tonight.

Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 18.5 Points (-125) | Also Playable To: Under 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

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