Raptors vs Pacers Picks, Prediction Today | Monday, Feb. 26

Here's everything you need to know about Raptors vs. Pacers on Monday, Feb. 26 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

Monday's NBA matchup between the Toronto Raptors (21-36) and the Indiana Pacers (33-25) showcases two vastly different scenarios as both teams bring their distinct strengths and weaknesses to the court. These two teams have been intertwined all season as they were the focal points of multiple trades this year moving big names including Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Immanuel Quickley.

Let's get to our Raptors vs. Pacers prediction and pick.

The Raptors have had a season of fluctuation, with their performance metrics painting a picture of a team still searching for its identity especially after the loss of Siakam. Offensively, they sit in the middle of the pack with a 19th-ranked offensive rating and ranking 16th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%).

Toronto’s relative strength in maintaining possession (13th in turnover percentage) and tenacity on the offensive boards (10th in offensive rebounding percentage) showcases a team that fights for every point. However, their struggles from the free-throw line (29th in free throw percentage) highlight an area of concern, especially in close game situations where every point counts.

Defensively, the Raptors have not been able to impose their will as effectively as they might have hoped, with a 22nd-ranked defensive rating and a similar ranking in eFG% allowed. Toronto’s ability to limit opponents' free throw opportunities (3rd in free throw rate) is a bright spot, but overall, their defensive metrics suggest a team that can be exploited, particularly by high-scoring offenses.

If the Raptors are going to stay close in this game tonight, they will need significant contribution in two key areas – scoring from their bench (16th in the league compared to the Pacers league best bench scoring) and converting on multiple trips to the charity stripe.

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The Indiana Pacers, contrastingly, have been an offensive powerhouse this season, ranking 2nd in offensive rating and leading the league in eFG%. This efficiency has been the cornerstone of their success, with a solid turnover percentage (11th) and a middle-of-the-road performance in offensive rebounding (19th) complementing their scoring prowess.

Their free throw rate (23rd) and percentage (15th) indicate a team that, while not excelling at drawing fouls, capitalizes on their opportunities at the line. Considering the Raptors rarely send opponents to the line, this will be something to watch.

Defensively, however, the Pacers have shown vulnerabilities, with a 25th-ranked defensive rating and a 26th place in eFG% allowed. Their difficulty in securing defensive rebounds (25th) and preventing opponents from exploiting free throw opportunities (29th in free throw rate) could be significant liabilities, especially against a Raptors team looking to exploit any defensive lapses.

Considering the statistical profiles and elements at play, the best bet for tonight's game appears to be the Raptors to cover +6.5 points at BetMGM.

Despite their inconsistencies, Toronto's ability to dominate the offensive boards versus a Pacers defense that has struggled to prevent second chance points could be significant in tonight’s game. Moreover, the Raptors' propensity to limit free throw opportunities for their opponents could neutralize one of Indiana's reliable scoring avenues.

Opting for the Raptors to cover takes into account not just the raw numbers but the situational dynamics of the matchup, including the Pacers' defensive shortcomings, the fact that the Raptors have covered both previous games against the Pacers, and the potential for Toronto's defense to step up against a high-scoring Pacers offense that will be tired on the second half of a back-to-back. Keep in mind, Indiana is the worst team in the NBA against the spread this season with a record of 2-8 ATS when factoring in zero rest.

Take the Raptors +6.5 tonight and expect a tightly fought match between these two Eastern Conference foes.

Pick: Raptors +6.5 (-110)

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