Steph Curry Player Props: The Best Bet in Game 6

The player prop highlighted below is for Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals on Thursday night:

• Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors: 9 p.m. ET (ABC)

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 12:45 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Warriors PG Steph Curry

Over/under: 5.5 rebounds

This prop whiffed for me in Game 4, but if I'm wrong a second time, at least there's a good chance the NBA season will be over and all will be forgotten by the time I restart this column next year.

In all seriousness, nothing much has changed in regard to this prop since Game 4 (except, you know, everything if you're Kevin Durant).

Steph is averaging 6.3 rebounds per 36 minutes with Durant off the floor this season, per our NBA On/Off tool.

The Warriors will continue to need as much Curry as possible to stave off elimination, so he's a good bet to play 40-plus minutes for the sixth straight time in the Finals, which would put his expectation closer to seven rebounds.

Our NBA Player Models have Steph projected for 7.06 rebounds in 42.6 minutes. earning this prop a perfect 10 rating in our props tool (59% win rate this season).

Steph has come away with at least six boards in six of his past nine games and seven of his past 13. I'd peg his odds somewhere in the middle and would play over 5.5 up to -150.

THE PICK: Over 5.5 Rebounds (-130)

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there.