Rovell: Late Night NBA Playoff Parlay Pick at BetMGM
Via Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic #15 and Jamal Murray #27 of the Denver Nuggets slap hands after a second half score against the Chicago Bulls at Ball Arena on March 8, 2023 in Denver, Colorado.
Every once in a while our BetLabs system spits out an absolute gem.
And today is one of those days.
Tonight, all three NBA favorites are favored by double digits. Since 2005, double digit playoff favorites are 77-56-4 against the spread (58%) and 125-12 straight up.
All of this has me dreaming up a juicy parlay. There’s no value in a three-team favorite moneyline parlay.
For all three to cover as of 9:20 p.m., it pays out at a whopping +581, but remember, covering is only at 58%. To take that, it would have to be at better than 70%.
It will help that we’re skipping Hawks vs. Celtics. Live as it stands, there’s no value in a Celtics team that’s already up big.
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So far this year, the Nuggets are 8-10 (44%) as favorites of 9.5 points or more, but if you bought two points, they would have covered 11 out of 18 (61%).
And it’s perfect that as of publish, they’re down eight points with a live line of -5.5. You’ll be able to lock in a better price based on a flimsy first quarter score.
There’s less data on the Suns because their team substantively changed with the acquisition of Kevin Durant. They are 2-3 as favorites of 12.5 or more and buying points really wouldn’t change that record. So I’m gonna be more aggressive and buy down three points.
Do a two-team spread parlay at BetMGM of Nuggets -5.5 live (or better) + Suns -9.5 for at least +145.
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