NBA Odds, Betting Picks & Predictions: Spurs vs. Jazz (Thursday, Aug. 13)

Spurs vs. Jazz Betting Odds & Picks

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The Spurs and Jazz meet in a game with seeding implications. The Jazz are resting starters and clearly seem content to sit on the 6-seed and play Denver rather than trying to move up to the 5-seed in the West, while the Spurs must win to keep any playoff hopes alive.

San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs have three players listed on the injury report at the time of this writing: Tyler Zeller (out – knee), Patty Mills (questionable – undisclosed) and Bryn Forbes (out – quad). 

The Spurs have everything to play for in a must-win game to try and secure the 9-seed in the West and a spot in the play-in game. They are 5-2 in the bubble and have exceeded expectations with their 4.7 Net Rating, which is fourth best in the bubble.

The Spurs have been playing at the third-fastest pace in the bubble, 106.21, per NBA.com. This is a significant uptick from their regular season average of 101.15. The Spurs have the seventh-best eFG% in the bubble (55.5%) despite having the bubble's worst location adjusted eFG% (51.8%).

Their offense is reliant on the mid-range shot, and they are the best in the league at taking it, shooting 45.5% from mid range which is 5% better than the league average per Cleaning the Glass. While this might seem unsustainable, the Spurs play an old-school offense and they are the best at it.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz have three players listed on the injury report: Rudy Gobert (out – back), Emmanuel Mudiay (questionable – knee) and Mike Conley (out – knee).

Lineups without Gobert and Conley are 8.3 points worse per 100 this season per Cleaning the Glass. They become awful defensively and give up 115.8 points per 100 possessions to opponents.

Additionally, they struggle with defending the mid-range shot, allowing opponents to shoot 46.1% from mid range, which is in the fourth-percentile of the league. For context, that is bad.

Betting Analysis & Pick

This game is tailor-made for the Spurs. They desperately need to win and the Jazz look content to settle into the 6-seed in the West. Moreover, without Gobert and Conley playing for the Jazz, the Spurs will be able to get the looks they want and dominate from mid range.

This spread is set at -7.5 and I lean that way for the Spurs. It's entirely possible that Donovan Mitchell sits down the stretch to stay fresh for the Jazz in the playoffs. I think the Spurs take care of business and they do their part to try and make the playoffs.

The PICK: Spurs -7.5 [Bet $20+ on the Spurs at PointsBet and Win $125 if they make at least one 3-pointer]