Spurs vs Kings Picks, Prediction Tonight | Thursday, March 7

Here's everything you need to know about Spurs vs. Kings on Thursday, March 7 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Spurs have come up with two impressive wins in their last three contests, but tonight they'll compete without their lead man, Victor Wembanyama.

Can the Kings find a statement win after a slightly arduous five games against the shorthanded Spurs?

Let's get to our Spurs vs. Kings prediction and pick.

Pick: Spurs +11 (-108)

The Spurs have lost Wembanyama to an ankle sprain, which throws some cold water on a recent run with home wins over the Thunder and Pacers followed by a road loss to the Rockets. Now, a miniature three-game road trip continues, potentially without Wembanyama for the final two, and the opposition only gets tougher.

Wembanyama's impact on this team cannot be understated, but he's definitely made a bigger imprint on the defensive end where he ranks in the 98th percentile in Estimated Plus/Minus according to Dunks and Threes. That would seem to take away the only strength of this Spurs team, which is adequate defending at the rim, though the good news here is that the Spurs are actually eighth in 3-point defense since the start of February.

The other good news is that the brunt of Wembanyama's work offensively has been done inside the arc, and San Antonio has remained in the top half of the league all year in shot frequency from 3, according to Cleaning the Glass. The unfortunate news is that the Spurs can't hit the broad side of a barn from outside, though a matchup with the worst 3-point defense in the league could change things.

The Kings have done nothing but launch, launch and launch from 3 over the course of the season, but since the calendar turned to February, things have been a bit different with this team settling for inefficient midrange jumpers a bit more. Still, the Kings have ranked seventh in Offensive Efficiency and remain a strong team at the rim even if their success from outside has been volatile.

Sacramento has been incredibly pedestrian from 3 over the last four games, with its strong shooting nights coinciding with wins and vice versa. That should make for a rather interesting clash here against a Spurs team which has done an excellent job against the 3, something that should remain consistent even without the services of Wembanyama.

The Kings also are playing the second leg of back-to-back games after taking out the Lakers on Wednesday night in impressive fashion. It did take 40 points from De'Aaron Fox to do the trick, but the Kings won't have to worry about injuries like the Spurs will.

We've seen a much better Spurs team in the last few weeks, even though the results haven't quite been there. This team has been much stronger on defense and has proven itself against some of the better offenses in the NBA, so this should be a favorable matchup with a Kings team which has been a bit all over the place on that end.

Sacramento is just 10-15 against the spread as home favorites and 3-6 ATS on no rest, and on the flip side the Spurs are 12-7 ATS as road dogs and 12-5-1 ATS with a rest advantage. With the ability to slow the 3-point shot, San Antonio can survive in this one despite losing a lot of its rim defense because the Kings just haven't forced the issue in there a ton, even with the services of Domantas Sabonis.

The Kings should try to shoot over the top of this defense, and with how things have been going for both teams, that should make for a close affair.

Pick: Spurs +11 (-108)