Suns vs Spurs Prediction, Picks Tonight | Best Bet for Thursday

Suns vs Spurs Prediction, Picks Tonight

Let's preview Suns-Spurs on Thursday night with our Suns vs Spurs prediction and picks for our best bets tonight.

If you’re feeling a bit of déjà vu, it’s because you HAVE seen this before. You saw it two nights ago, when the Spurs and Suns faced off in Phoenix. The Suns looked poised to blow the Spurs out of the water, but a fourth quarter scoring drought let the Spurs hang around and eventually win after a huge Kevin Durant turnover.

Bradley Beal remains out for the Suns, but Devin Booker is listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision.

Let's dig into round two for our Suns vs Spurs prediction and picks.

Suns vs Spurs Pick, Best Bets

Picks:  Suns to Cover the Spread (.5 unit) | Suns to Cover the 1H Spread (1 unit) | Suns Team Total Over 116.5 (.5 unit) | Kevin Durant Over 5.5 Assists (If Booker's out)

This spread has been on the move all day long, and constantly moving against us. When we first made our Suns to cover the spread bet for tonight, it was Phoenix -7. Now, just before tip, the Suns are 10-point favorites across the board, with a few -9.5s still on the market.

In my preview for Tuesday’s matchup, I talked about the Suns' defense and the Spurs lack of defense. I was on the Suns' team total over 116.5 and Durant over 5.5 assists. Durant cleared that line easily, but the Suns scored just 114 points despite having 95 points through three quarters.

Even without Booker or Beal, the Suns dominated the first half and were up 63-45 after 24 minutes. They finishing the half with a +37 Net Rating. Phoenix continued scoring in the third, but did let the Spurs score 37. If not for an epic meltdown in the fourth quarter, Phoenix would have sailed over its team total.

The defensive-minded Frank Vogel started the fourth quarter with a defense-heavy lineup in Jordan Goodwin, Grayson Allen, Nassir Little, Yuta Watanabe and Drew Eubanks. Three-player lineup combinations with those five, excluding Allen, have produced sub-95.0 Defensive Ratings in 39+ minutes this season, but the tradeoff is horrific offense (96.8 on average). Without an above-average playmaker or shot-creator like Durant, the offense is too stagnant to make up for the defensive upside.

Gregg Popovich opted to keep most of his starters in for the start of the fourth quarter and they mounted a massive comeback that ended in a series of blunders, including a last-minute turnover by Durant that ultimately caused the Suns to lose 115-114.

Pick: Suns to Cover the Spread

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Suns vs Spurs Odds, Picks

Despite the disappointing performance, I still lean heavily toward the Suns. This is a classic spot for Phoenix. The Suns are coming off an embarrassing loss at home and have a chance at home revenge, but I’ll skip the first quarter.

I’m also going back to the well with their team total over. Despite the full game total dropping from 226.5 to 225.5 from Tuesday’s game to Thursday’s, the Suns' team total stayed at 116.5, which tells me the books are worried about the Spurs scoring, but not the Suns. And I agree.

What I like about these bets is that we have the possibility of Booker returning, which is good for all three. I have a unit each on the Suns in both halves and a half unit on the Suns team total over 116.5, which I like to 117.5. If Booker remains out, I’ll put a half unit on Durant over 5.5 assists and play that up to 6.5 (-110).

Picks:  Suns to Cover the Spread (.5 unit) | Suns to Cover the 1H Spread (1 unit) | Suns Team Total Over 116.5 (.5 unit) | Kevin Durant Over 5.5 Assists (If Booker's out)

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