Spurs vs Warriors Picks, Prediction Today | Saturday, March 9

Here's everything you need to know about Spurs vs. Warriors on Saturday, March 9 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Spurs continue to look better and better as the games go on, and despite a run of two straight losses they should prove to be dangerous against an inconsistent Warriors team even without star center Victor Wembanyama.

Will they be dangerous enough to cover for a fifth time in six games?

Let's get to our Spurs vs. Warriors prediction and pick.

Even without Wembanyama on Thursday night, the Spurs put forth an inspired effort in a narrow two-point loss in Sacramento, a significant achievement considering they've had a brutal go of it on the road and have relied heavily upon the No. 1 overall pick on the offensive end.

We'll start with the good, which is that this team was able to muster up a superb 125.2 offensive rating without their do-it-all big man. Their hot shooting continued with a mark of 47.1% from outside, and even though the Kings do own the worst 3-point defense in the league and have struggled in general on that end, we've now seen the Spurs hit plenty of threes for weeks against solid defensive teams like the Lakers, Timberwolves and Thunder.

Now, let's address the grave concern here for San Antonio, which is its incredibly poor effort on the defensive end. Sure, the Kings' offense is downright lethal, but this team's work on that end of the floor has been what's sparked this run of good basketball lately. Sacramento was able to toast this Spurs team despite shooting just 31.3% from 3 to boot.

Given this team's performance inside the arc without Wembanyama, we certainly have to question whether these last six games have been fool's gold. There are no other injuries impacting this team, so it may be that the rookie has that large of an impact on the defensive end.

The Warriors are a hard team to figure out. Let's ignore their troubles in close games, which continued in a disappointing loss to the Bulls on the second night of a back-to-back Thursday and just look at what we've seen out of them as they've inspired confidence in many that they're back to playing championship-caliber basketball.

They've done a great job on defense, but I'm going to call their run of competition into question a bit. Their recent numbers are weighted heavily by games against the Hornets, Wizards, a Jalen Brunson-less Knicks team and the Raptors. The Warriors had two notable defensive showings since going on a splendid run on that end. One was a game against the Lakers (missing LeBron James) which saw L.A. shoot just 28.6% from 3 in what's become an anomaly. The other was the other night against the Bucks in what was Milwaukee's worst offensive game of the season and one which, again, was mainly due to the fact that it could not cash in from deep.

Golden State has had excellent marks against the 3 this season, but I'm ever so skeptical of this spot against a Spurs team that is shooting a stunning 41.6% from outside in their last eight games, and that's been done against some great defensive teams.

Now, offensively things have been incredibly volatile which is to be expected from a team which relies so heavily upon the 3-ball. What I don't like is that the Warriors have played down on that end against several poor teams, especially against the Hornets a couple of weeks ago, which was a rather troubling site.

That leads us to the injury report, which has another big name on it: Stephen Curry. The lead man for Golden State won't be playing in this one, so can we really expect great things out of this offense which is so reliant upon the outside shot?

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I'm frankly shocked that oddsmakers are essentially handing this game to the Warriors despite the absence of Curry. He's been this team's entire offense, and when he's been off the floor this team is nearly seven points worse per 100 possessions. The lead cause of this is a 4.7 point dip in their 3-point accuracy.

This game, like many in the NBA these days, is going to come down to how well both teams shoot the ball from outside. One team is ranked third over the last eight games in that regard, and one is ranked 25th and is now down the best shooter of all time.

I am slightly concerned that the Spurs did such a poor job defending the interior without Wembanyama, but at least on Thursday we can say they were tasked with stopping Domantas Sabonis and the slashing De'Aaron Fox. Who is going to torch this team inside from Golden State's side?

I like the Spurs with the points here in a game where they should get back to business on the defensive end. They've been firmly above average on that side of the floor for the last couple of weeks now, and with the way they're shooting the ball I don't think Golden State will be offered the same type of let-off it has had in recent wins.

Pick: Spurs +9.5 (-110)