Suns vs. Mavericks Odds, Expert Pick & Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (Sunday, March 5)

Suns vs. Mavericks Odds, Expert Pick & Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (Sunday, March 5) article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Durant (35) of the Phoenix Suns, Kyrie Irving (2) of the Dallas Mavericks.

  • The Suns face the Mavericks on Sunday afternoon in Dallas in a rematch from last year's second round of the NBA Playoffs.
  • The Mavericks won that series, but which side has the edge today with significant new additions to each side, including Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving?
  • Matt Moore breaks down the matchup and shares his betting pick below.

Suns vs. Mavericks Odds

Suns Odds-1
Mavericks Odds+1
Over/Under234.5
Time1 p.m. ET
TVABC
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Old friends Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving face off in a Sunday afternoon national TV matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas  Mavericks, two Western Conference contenders.

Can the Mavericks gain some momentum with their two stars after an up-and-down start? Or will Phoenix keep rolling since adding Durant? Let's bet Suns vs. Mavericks.

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Phoenix Suns

Deandre Ayton is questionable for Phoenix, while Landry Shamet remains out. Terrance Ross returns to the lineup after missing time with a toe injury.

Durant has fit in seamlessly, even with his minute restriction. The Suns have focused on getting him involved early in action.

Durant’s current rotation on the minutes restriction is to exit middle of the first, then play with the Suns’ bench in the second quarter. This means that early in the game, Devin Booker is acting as facilitator, then shifting into scoring mode when Durant’s not on the floor.

(Booker has averaged 3.5 assists in the first quarter in the two games with Durant.)

More impressive, though, has been Phoenix’s defense. There was concern about Phoenix’s ability to defend wings after trading both Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson, but Josh Okogie and others have stepped up. The Suns have held their past two opponents under their team total in both games.

Against the Mavericks, the Suns will face a test of their limited versatility. The Suns don’t have the ability to play small like they did two years ago, and that can cause problems against Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

Still, their size and wing depth should help against the two, and Dallas’ defense is not on the Suns’ level.


Dallas Mavericks

Maxi Kleber is probable for this game, a big boost in giving the Mavericks a big who can play five out to space the floor and defend.

Dallas is 12-4 straight up against opponents above .500 at home this season, but just 7-8-1 ATS. They win these games, but don’t cover. That’s in line with the fact that Dallas is just 10-18-2 ATS as a home favorite this season.

Irving and Doncic had a rough stretch of games but finally got a signature win against the Philadelphia 76ers this week when they shot the lights out. Still, the Mavericks have given up an opponent team total over in four of their last five games.

The Mavericks will likely try sending doubles against Booker and Durant; that’s been their strategy vs. various high-level scorers. But Booker and Durant are stellar passers, both underrated.

Suns-Mavericks Pick

I like the Suns in this matchup. The Mavericks have had a mental edge over the Suns since their win in the playoffs last year, but this Suns team has Kevin Durant and this Mavericks team is worse.

Furthermore, I like the Mavericks team total under and Devin Booker’s assist prop. I’ll be playing those in a Same Game Parlay.

Dallas doesn’t project to have the defensive capability to slow down Phoenix enough. I like the Suns on the moneyline, the Mavericks' team total under, and Devin Booker's over on assists.

Pick: Suns ML (-105) | Mavericks Under 117.5 + Booker Over 5.5 Assists SGP (+285)

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Doug Ziefel
Jun 23, 2024 UTC