Suns vs. Nuggets Odds, Pick, Prediction: Value on Over/Under

Suns vs. Nuggets Odds, Pick, Prediction: Value on Over/Under article feature image

AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets.

  • The Phoenix Suns take on the Denver Nuggets in Wednesday night NBA action.
  • The Nuggets have been on a roll since Christmas and enter this matchup as double-digit favorites.
  • However, Chris Baker sees betting value on the over/under and explains why below.

Suns vs. Nuggets Odds

Suns Odds+14
Nuggets Odds-14
Over/Under227 (-110/-110)
Time10 p.m. ET
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

This is a battle between two teams heading in polar opposite directions.

The Suns started off the year red-hot but have completely fallen apart following the quad injury Devin Booker suffered against the Nuggets on Christmas.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets have gone 13-3 since Dec. 8 and now sit atop the Western Conference standings.

Can the sputtering Suns shock the Nuggets in Ball Arena? Or will Denver continue its rampage through the West? Let’s dive into how these two teams match up with each other and make a betting pick based on that information.

Phoenix Suns

Phoenix has legitimately been one of the worst teams in the NBA since losing Booker on Christmas. The Suns rank 28th in net rating (-8.7) and last in the offensive rating (104.9) since Dec. 26. For context, the Bucks rank 29th in offensive rating during that span with a rating of 107.5, and the Rockets rank last on the season up at 109.2.

The Suns offense has been historically bad over the past few weeks, and they have failed to score 100 points in four straight games. They did post a 119.0 offensive rating against this Nuggets team on Christmas Day, but it's hard for me to envision them repeating that performance after shooting an unsustainable 50% from 3-point range in that game.

The projected negative shooting regression and injury concerns have me struggling to see how they find a way to win here on the road.

Things have been better for Phoenix on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 11th in defensive rating (113.6) since Christmas.

Still, this is an especially difficult matchup for the Suns defense. The Nuggets lead the league in offensive rating since Christmas and rank second on the year. This is a generational offense that has proven to be pretty much matchup-proof, in my opinion.

This could be a long night for the Suns on both sides of the ball.

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Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have been the anti-Suns in many ways. They rank first in net rating (+10.0) and offensive rating since Christmas.

This team is firing on all cylinders, and it’s not like it's been playing lower-tier teams either. Eight of the Nuggets' last 11 games have come against teams that rank top-20 in net rating.

Their offense has been elite, and their defense has improved markedly, as they rank 11th in defensive rating since Christmas Day. They should have no issues handling this Suns offense that has been growing through massive growing pains.

Suns-Nuggets Pick

It’s impossible to bet against the Nuggets here given the way they've been playing offensively. We could see plenty of points in this one, considering the fact that we may see Landry Shamet, Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul return for Phoenix in this game.

The Suns rested all those players in their game against Golden State last night, so I would expect some of them to play here in Denver. With guys like Duane Washington and Dario Saric getting more burn, I believe the Suns' offensive ceiling is much higher.

Despite its previous offensive struggles, Phoenix can do enough here to cash this over at 227. Play the over to 228.

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