The Minnesota Timberwolves (0-1) and Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0) will face off in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves on the spread (Thunder -7.5), with the over/under set at 217 total points. Oklahoma City is a -290 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is +235 to pull off the upset.
The Thunder relentlessly attacked the Wolves’ dribble to force turnovers and get out and run in the first matchup of this series. They shut off the rim and made Minnesota take jumpers that they missed. The result was the Wolves’ worst loss of the season.
Can Minnesota bounce back in Game 2 tonight? Or is Oklahoma City just getting started on a dominant title run? Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks on Thursday, May 22.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction for Western Conference Finals Game 2
My Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 2 best bet is split between Minnesota to cover the spread and Minnesota moneyline, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best lines using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Timberwolves +7.5 (-110) / Timberwolves Moneyline (+235)
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Odds for Thursday, May 22
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 217 -110 / -110 | +235 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 217 -110 / -110 | -290 |
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -7.5
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder over/under: 217 total points
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder moneyline: Timberwolves +235, Thunder -290
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder best bets:Timberwolves +7.5 / Timberwolves ML
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Western Conference Finals Game 2 Preview
I bet the Timberwolves in the first matchup of this series, and I am back on them again in Game 2. I am ready to get hurt again.
I'm not much of a double-downer. I don’t tend to think that my reads were right if they didn’t get home. I’m wrong a lot and can usually identify where my thought process went wrong.
However, I am doubling down in Game 2 tonight. I think my reads were right ahead of the first matchup, even though they didn’t get home. I am wrong a lot, but the process holds up here.
Last game, the Thunder got the following to go their way:
- A huge free-throw disparity: The Thunder are one of the highest foul-rate teams in the regular season and playoffs, yet they had a 26-21 free-throw advantage.
- A sizable shot variance advantage: The Wolves, a better three-point shooting team than the first two teams the Thunder faced in the postseason, went 29.4 percent from three-point range, while Oklahoma City went 52.4%
- An outlier points off turnovers disparity: Don’t get me wrong, this is what OKC does. The Thunder might win the points off turnover battle in every game. But they won it in the first matchup of this series by a margin of 31-10.
That is the 4th-most points off turnovers in the postseason for the Thunder, and 10th-most in the season overall. It was also the sixth-fewest they have surrendered. And yet, Oklahoma City only led by 10 going into the fourth quarter.
Yes, the Thunder blew them out, because that’s what Oklahoma City does.
The Thunder are good for two blowout wins in each series. Think about the first two games against Memphis, and then Games 2 and 7 against Denver.
The Timberwolves' game plan was also atrocious last game.
From their lack of discipline in defending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander while showing hands to avoid touch fouls, to getting sucked into playing too much small-ball which is exactly what Oklahoma City wants, to an unreasonable number of post-ups, it was likely Chris Finch's worst loss of his Minnesota playoff career.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Predictions for Game 2
Timberwolves +7.5 (-110) / Timberwolves Moneyline (+235)
I expect a lot of adjustments in Game 2 tonight.
Among them, Rudy Gobert only played 21 minutes last game. He picked up two fouls, and from there on, Finch felt like he was playing catch-up and needed the offense out there.
However, Gobert finished only a -2 in his 21 minutes compared to the small-ball lineups, which were obliterated.
Expect to see more high blitz actions defensively on SGA with non-Gobert combinations.
The Wolves led this game after the first half, and had a chance to extend the lead. However, they strayed from their game script and adopted a bad game plan.
I think the Thunder pretty much won the Western Conference in Game 1. You’re not going to beat this Thunder time four times out of six. But, I also think we’re going to Minnesota tied at 1-1 either way.
Last game, I bet the Wolves partly based on the fact that teams coming off a Game 7 in the conference finals as home favorites were 2-6 SU since 2003. The Thunder made that 3-6 in the first matchup of this series.
The two teams that won Game 1 in that spot? They both went on to lose Game 2 at home straight up.
A few more trends:
- Teams in the conference finals that lost and failed to cover in Game 1 have gone 22-38 SU in Game 2, but they 31-29 ATS in that spot. Of the 31 teams that covered, 22 won outright.
- Road underdogs in the conference finals who are also division opponents of the home favorite are 20-11 ATS and 10-3 coming off a loss.
Under 217 (-110)
The total flew under last game after the market pushed it way up from the opening line, and we are seeing the same thing happen again ahead of Game 2.
I like the under again here, as I make this line 211.
I think the most likely regression comes in the fouls the Thunder drew and their three-point shooting.
Road underdogs coming off a loss where the opponent shot better than 50% from 3-point range in the previous game have seen the under go 32-14-3 (70%) since 2003, and the opponent team total (OKC in this case) has gone under in 31 of the 49 games.
Overall, the under is 103-69-11 (60%) after a team shoots better than 50% from beyond the arc.
Rudy Gobert Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)
Here’s a key stat: Shai Gilgeous Alexander ran 19 pick-and-rolls in the first matchup of this series, but primarily tried to avoid going over the screen at Gobert.
He only had 9 pick-and-rolls attacking Gobert in drop coverage. He attacked Naz Reid and Julius Randle, but not Gobert.
His two turnovers came in a pick-and-roll against Gobert. He generated just 7 points on those 9 possessions.
I think Gobert stays on the floor in Game 2 tonight, and he should be a positive factor.
Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+160)
McDaniels got three looks from three-point range last game and hit one, but the Thunder are likely going to need to help down low more in Game 2 against what is likely to be a better-organized offense from Minnesota.
McDaniels has been better on the road than at home in the last three playoffs, statistically.
Jalen Williams Over 25.5 Points + Assists (-110)
Williams had 24 points and assists last game, despite missing wide open looks and having eight potential assists.
This matchup is favorable for him, and I think we'll see him keep attacking in Game 2 tonight.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 2 Best Bets
- Timberwolves +7.5 (-110) / Timberwolves Moneyline (+235)
- Under 217 (-110)
- Rudy Gobert Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)
- Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+160)
- Jalen Williams Over 25.5 Points + Assists (-110)
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Betting Trends
