Warriors vs. Rockets Game 4 Betting Preview: Will Houston Even the Series?

Warriors vs. Rockets Game 4 Betting Preview: Will Houston Even the Series? article feature image

Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden and Kevin Durant

Game 4 Betting Odds: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets

  • Spread: Rockets -1.5
  • Over/Under: 221.5
  • Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Series Score: Warriors Lead 2-1

>> All odds as of Sunday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.

No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 hole, and the Rockets avoided that in Game 3 with a clutch overtime win.

Now can they even the series in Game 4? Our analysts dive in.

Betting Trends to Know

The Warriors are 15-8 ATS (65.2%) after a straight-up loss in the playoffs under Steve Kerr, covering by 5.5 points per game. Against Western Conference opponents after a loss, they are 13-4 ATS (76.5%), covering by 7.3 PPG. – Evan Abrams

Under Kerr, the Warriors have never played a playoff series in which they did not win at least one game straight-up and ATS on the road. They had done it in 17 consecutive series entering this conference semifinal series against the Rockets. – Abrams

Regardless of whether it’s the playoffs or the regular season, after a team defeats the Warriors, they have a tough time getting up for their next game … even if it is the Warriors again. Since 2014-15, teams are 44-61-3 ATS (41.9%) after defeating the Warriors — 38.1% ATS in the playoffs and 42.9% in the regular season. – Abrams

Bettors expect the Warriors to bounce back, as a majority of spread tickets have been placed on Golden State. Since 2005, it has been profitable to wager on unpopular favorites like the Rockets in the playoffs. – John Ewing

Locky: How I’m Betting Game 4

There’s a concept that’s starting to take hold in this series that I wasn’t sure would materialize. In fact, I thought it was kind of a lame theme people brought up before the series, but as it turns out those people were right. So here’s kind of an absurd statement: The Warriors’ depth is a huge issue.

A few weeks ago I would have said something like, “Do you know WHY they have poor depth? Because they have three of the best 15 players in the entire league, four of the best 25, and a fifth who is currently injured. Somehow I think they’ll manage OK with the most talent of any roster still.” My sarcasm would have gone over swimmingly, no doubt.

The Game 3 box score is eye-opening when viewed through that prism. Kevin Looney and Shaun Livingston played 13 and 11 minutes; Alfonzo McKinnie played eight. There is such a lack of trust for ANYONE on his bench that Steve Kerr even went back to Andrew Bogut for a very limited time.

The Bogut and Jonas Jerebko minutes were such an abject disaster that I’m not sure you will even see that anymore, or if you do it’ll be somehow for even less than you saw it in Game 3. It’s sort of like Greg Monroe with the Sixers: When you hear the horn and see him enter the game, be ready to live bet the opposition because you KNOW you’re getting a number that’s going to look great about five minutes later.

With Klay Thompson still clearly laboring and Stephen Curry struggling a little, I think fatigue and a lack of options become major issues here. In just 48 hours after a grueling game, the Warriors are going to enter a pivotal Game 4 with almost no one beyond the Hampton’s 5 they can rely on; meanwhile, Houston can go nine deep and still play Kenneth Faried as a 10th if needed. It may very well be an incredible advantage as this series goes deeper.

With the traditional one off-day between games, and Golden State coming off such heavy minutes, combined with the Thompson/Curry struggles, I think Houston gets this Game 4. Golden State will then regroup back in Oakland for what will become one of the most important games for the complexion of the season overall in Game 5. — Ken Barkley

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.