Warriors vs Nuggets Prediction, Pick | NBA Christmas Day Best Bet
Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network. Pictured: Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets; Stephen Curry of the Warriors.
Here's everything you need to know about Warriors vs Nuggets on Monday, Dec. 25 — our expert Warriors vs Nuggets prediction and betting picks for our NBA Christmas Day best bet, featuring a bet against the spread on Christmas Day for Warriors-Nuggets.
Warriors vs Nuggets Prediction, Pick | NBA Christmas Day Best Bet
The Denver Nuggets host Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors on Christmas Day. Both of these teams have title aspirations, although those hopes may be a bit more realistic for one team.
Let's get to our Warriors vs Nuggets prediction and pick, which you'll want to lock in ASAP, as this line is on the move.
Pick: Nuggets -7
Make sure you shop around for this line, as it's all the way up to Denver -7.5 at many books.
Warriors vs Nuggets Prediction
Pick: Nuggets -7
The Nuggets are one of the league's best teams once again, and they come into this Christmas showdown healthy. They have the sixth-best Net Rating (+5.1) and sit in second place in the Western Conference at 21-10.
Denver has been even more dominant at home, where it is 11-2 with a +11.5 average point differential, per Cleaning the Glass. The altitude is an edge the Nuggets are comfortable with, and they have crushed in this spot.
From a matchup perspective, each of Denver's primary starters has had success against Golden State. Over the last two seasons against the Warriors, Nikola Jokić is averaging 27.7 points, 13 rebounds, and 10.3 assists while Jamal Murray has put up 29.5 points and 8 assists per game. Meanwhile, Michael Porter Jr. has scored at least 17 points in all four games and Aaron Gordon has a double-double in two of three games he's played in. I'd consider Jokić over 12.5 rebounds and Porter over 2.5 3s in parlays or as straights, as well as Jamal Murray over 21.5 points. Lead guards have torched the Warriors this season, so Murray should find success in this matchup.
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On the season, the Warriors sit 10th in the Western Conference with a 15-14 record and have a Net Rating of +1.4, per Basketball Reference. However, they have played the fourth-toughest schedule in the league. The Warriors are just 2-4 though against the Top 10 teams in point differential when on the road this season, per Cleaning the Glass. One of those losses was a 108-105 defeat to the Nuggets on Nov. 8.
The Warriors have the league's worst expected eFG% mark at 53.8%. Last year, they also ranked in the bottom five, but they completely outpaced it with the third-best actual eFG%. They have not had the same luck this season and are sitting at exactly the league average (54.7%), per Cleaning the Glass. Golden State simply has not been able to break through its lack of attacking the rim with truly superior 3-point shooting.
Warriors vs Nuggets Pick, Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | +228 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | -285 |
One of the primary concerns for the Warriors here is the lack of Draymond Green. While he has had a negative Net Rating this season, his absence severely impacts the Warriors' ability to defend the Murray-Jokić pick and roll. Kevon Looney is too slow to defend it, and Dario Šarić is not strong enough down low.
That weak spot coupled with the fact that Denver has been dominant at home makes me comfortable enough to lay the points even against a Curry-led team. Make sure you shop around for this line, though, as it's all the way up to Denver -7.5 at many books.
Pick: Nuggets -7
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