Warriors vs Thunder Prediction, Pick Today | Best Bet for Friday

Here's everything you need to know about Warriors vs. Thunder on Friday, Dec. 7 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Golden State Warriors travel to Oklahoma City to face the Thunder on Friday night in what will be the fourth meeting of the season between these teams. It’s been all Thunder so far, but neither team has been with its full personnel. Draymond Green missed the past two games (suspension) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed the first matchup, an In-Season Tournament meeting.

This time, all the stars suiting up in what’s becoming a quiet Western Conference rivalry. So, let's get to our Warriors vs. Thunder prediction and pick.

The Warriors have had a bit of an up-and-down season and that’s certainly been the case lately. They’re 10-10 and have alternated wins and losses for seven straight games since Nov. 18, when they lost two consecutive games to … the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Oklahoma City has owned the matchup this year, but the Warriors took three of four last season. It always seems to be a points-fest when these teams meet. The past seven games have gone over the total with both sides combining for 129.4 points per game.

Gilgeous-Alexander likes to penetrate to the middle of the floor and either hit floaters or find shooters on the perimeter. Well, the Warriors rank last in midrange attempts allowed, per Cleaning the Glass.

On the other side, the Warriors are a 3-point shooting team with Steph Curry at the helm and for as good as the Thunder defense has been (fifth in the league, per Dunks and Threes), Oklahoma City is surprisingly susceptible from deep. The over is still a good look at 235.5 — two points below the closing line from the most recent matchup between these teams.

Chet Holmgren has been a difference maker for the Thunder in these matchups. He had an impressive last-minute 3 to send the game into overtime in the most recent meeting and will be an important piece on Friday night. The Warriors are a much better rebounding team than the Thunder and have won the rebound battle in every matchup this season, but that’s why Holmgren is so important.

Despite Golden State’s team advantage, Holmgren has been the game’s second-leading rebounder in two games, trailing Golden State's Kevon Looney. In the third matchup, Holmgren was tied for the game leader in rebounds, though Looney played just 11 minutes that night.

I see value on the over, but the Warriors' defense has played better lately and I’ll stay away despite the recent trend. Instead, I’ll take a stab at Holmgren’s rebound prop and bet him to go Over 7.5 rebounds. Holmgren has cleared eight or more in every game against Golden State this season and in five of his past nine games overall. I also see some value in going Over 8.5, but wager less at that number.

Pick: Chet Holmgren Over 7.5 Rebounds (-135)

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