Entering the third weekend of college baseball, we’re starting to get some valuable data points.
In just a couple more weeks, RPI and DSR data will be available. That both helps and hurts NCAA baseball bettors — on one hand, it helps make better-informed bets, and on the other, it improves betting lines.
So, before we get the information increase, let’s take advantage of some undervalued programs.
My approach for several years has been to bet undervalued underdogs and short favorites, then pair heavier favorites together in two- or three-team moneyline parlays. It moves your breakeven point up quite a bit, but the disparity in pitching staffs and overall team talent makes this an attainable winning clip.
I came through with 2 moneyline parlays and an underdog to bet, so let's dive into my NCAA baseball predictions and college baseball picks for Friday, Feb. 27.
Auburn + UCSB ML Parlay (+115)
- Auburn vs. Nebraska (7 p.m. ET · SEC Network+)
- UCSB vs. Utah (7:05 p.m. ET · ESPN+)
If you’re not already familiar, allow me to introduce you to Jake Marciano.
Auburn’s Friday night arm transferred in from Virginia Tech and turned in two dynamite starts, allowing just one total run while striking out 20 batters in 11 innings pitched. One of those starts came against Kansas State, a formidable offensive team.
Nebraska, meanwhile, runs out Ty Horn, who's a solid starter, but not to the level of Marciano.
Marciano is allowing opponents to hit just .111, and the Huskers’ lineup is aggressive. Four batters are hitting around or above .400, but 8-of-12 top hitters have a strikeout rate above 20%.
Now, UCSB is at the center of both moneyline parlays this Friday.
The Gauchos display superior pitching, and Friday night ace Jackson Flora has allowed only one run through 11 innings of work.
As a unit, UCSB allowed just five total runs over 38 innings in three games last series.
Utah is off to a fairly inconsistent start, allowing 14 runs to Fresno State on Sunday in Week 1 but also shutting out San Diego State last Saturday. I'll take the more consistent team in this spot.
Pick: Auburn + UCSB ML Parlay (+115)
West Virginia + Ole Miss + UCSB ML Parlay (+149)
- West Virginia vs. Kennesaw State (4 p.m. ET · ESPN+)
- Ole Miss vs. Baylor (4:05 p.m. ET · YouTube)
- UCSB vs. Utah (7:05 p.m. ET · ESPN+)
West Virginia and Ole Miss are teams I’m still backing early in the year.
Though D1Baseball and other rankings systems have picked up on the Rebs and ‘Neers, betting markets are still undervaluing them.
Ole Miss falls behind Tennessee, Oklahoma and Florida, and in line with beat-up Texas A&M. WVU is approaching Big 12 favorite territory, falling just behind red-hot Arizona State.
I’m not a buyer on Baylor this year, though Ole Miss' Hunter Elliott has struggled with control and consistency. However, when he finds his stride, Elliott is one of the best arms in the SEC.
Sunday starter Dawson Montesa moves into the Friday night role, pushing Chansen Cole to Saturday. He shone against Georgia Southern, striking out seven batters in six innings.
Liberty took advantage of Montesa, but he did show flashes of excellence. The junior struck out eight batters in four innings, but gave up three runs.
In order to have exposure to three teams I like early in the year, I’m bundling them together. All three games should have pristine weather, allowing for talent to really win out here.
Pick: West Virginia + Ole Miss + UCSB ML Parlay (+149)
NCAA Baseball Underdog Pick
Houston +160 vs. Oregon State
3 p.m. ET · D1Baseball
I’m not sure it’s quite “panic button” time in Corvallis, but something must change with this offense if the Beavers want to be competitive in the postseason.
The pitching edge goes to the Beavs, as sophomore Dax Whitney takes the mound against Chris Scinta. Through 12.0 innings pitched, Whitney has fanned 23 batters and allowed one run.
But Houston is a bit more aggressive at the plate than Michigan or Baylor.
Until Oregon State improves its bats, it's a full-on fade. Houston is a team that could make some real noise in the Big 12 with a nice combination of offense and a pretty deep bullpen.
This is a game I’m also interested in betting under the run total.
Pick: Houston ML +160
