The Oklahoma Sooners take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in Game 1 of the College World Series Final at 3 p.m. ET on Saturday, June 20. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
North Carolina enters as a favorite of -180 on the moneyline and is -1.5 (+105) on the run line. Oklahoma, meanwhile, enters as a +140 underdog and is +1.5 (-135) on the run line. The over/under sits at 8.5 total runs (-120o / -100u).
Let's dive into my Oklahoma vs UNC prediction and College World Series picks for Game 1 of the championship series on Saturday, June 20.
Oklahoma vs UNC Prediction
- Oklahoma vs UNC Pick: F5 Under 5.5 (-120 · bet365) · NRFI +125 (bet365)
My UNC vs Oklahoma best bet is on both teams to go under the total and neither team to score in the first inning in Game 1 of the CWS finals.
Oklahoma vs UNC Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 8.5 -120o / -100u | +140 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8.5 -120o / -100u | -180 |
Oklahoma vs UNC Pick, Betting Analysis
While both the Oklahoma Sooners and North Carolina Tar Heels have impressively swept their way through Omaha, their roads here were much more difficult, which makes their play over the past week even more impressive.
North Carolina was a national seed that came two outs away from elimination in Super Regionals, but it's crazy to think it has barely trailed since that comeback victory against USC.
As for Oklahoma, the Sooners were never quite the fairy tale that Troy was. Although, it's pretty shocking that a team that finished under .500 in SEC play has made the run they have, which includes eliminating national seeds Georgia Tech, Georgia and Kansas in a Super Regionals sweep.
Those paths all lead here, Game 1 of the College World Series final.
The Tar Heels are heavy favorites to win this series, but we should know by now that the Sooners can't be discounted. In a best-of-three series, winning Game 1 is critical.
With that in mind, we'll see both aces in this opening matchup.
Jason DeCaro takes the ball for North Carolina. DeCaro has been a model of consistency for seasons now, and this year is no different, pitching to a 2.31 ERA in 93 innings while holding a 1.27 WHIP.
DeCaro's experience is countered by Cord Rager's "youthful" ascension. The left-handed freshman has only gotten better as the lights have gotten brighter. In the postseason, Rager has gone 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA while striking out 22 batters in 19 innings.
He also hasn't given up a run since Regionals against The Citadel. He shut out both Kansas and Alabama, allowing just four hits and striking out 14.
The lefty is poised to be a challenge for the Tar Heels, whose lineup typically features five left-handed bats.
UNC hasn't been elite against left-handers outside of Owen Hull. Key bats like Jake Schaffner and Cooper Nicholson have some of the most exaggerated splits. Even Gavin Gallaher's batting average falls down 20 points from his season-long numbers.
With three of the Tar Heels' top five bats in the order potentially nullified, there's value created. We should trust DeCaro to be rock solid on the other side of this matchup.
For the first time in many days, the wind isn't set to play a big role in this matchup, which means Charles Schwab Field will return to being a pitcher's park. The elements, combined with the two men on the mound, point to early unders.
Take the first five under, as these two should duel from the start. The hot start also makes the NRFI a great angle.
Overall, I've found that NRFIs have been an undervalued angle in the postseason, with the price not being accurately reflected. Lineups are being overvalued in this case as well.
Pick: F5 Under 5.5 (-120 · bet365) · NRFI +125 (bet365)
