And then there were two.
The North Carolina Tar Heels battle the Oklahoma Sooners in a best-of-three series in the College World Series finals. By Monday, we’ll have a new champion of college baseball.
If you’ve followed along with us here at Action Network, we’ve enjoyed our postseason action, and perhaps you already have a future ticket on one of these teams.
But in case you don’t — or if you’re looking to hedge a ticket — I’m adding a series winner bet ahead of Saturday’s Game 1.
Let's take a look at my College World Series picks and Oklahoma vs. North Carolina predictions for the 2026 CWS finals.
College World Series Picks, Predictions
Oklahoma to Win College World Series (+155)
A month ago, almost exactly to the date, Oklahoma finished its season 13-17 in SEC play and as a one-and-done thanks to a 6-2 loss to LSU in the conference tournament.
Then the rubber hit the road. Oklahoma ripped off nine wins in its 10 games played, including eight in a row.
The Sooners stunned Georgia Tech in the Atlanta Regional, then Kansas in the Lawrence Super Regional, and beat Alabama and Georgia twice to earn a spot in the College World Series finals.
Perhaps the most impressive part of this run is the three freshmen arms that played pivotal roles in Omaha:
- Cord Rager vs. Alabama: 7 IP, 8 strikeouts, 0 earned runs
- Xander Mercurius vs. Georgia: 7 1/3 IP, 9 strikeouts, 3 earned runs
- Nick Wesloski vs. Georgia: 5 2/3 IP, 4 strikeouts, 1 earned run
Yet to throw in Omaha is junior Cameron Johnson, who fell out of his starting position to start May. Those freshmen starters have been so solid that OU has barely needed its bullpen.
Oklahoma’s route to the CWS final was markedly more difficult than North Carolina’s, which beat Ole Miss (No. 3 seed from the Lincoln Regional) and West Virginia (the No. 16 national seed).
Compare that to OU’s upending of the No. 2 (Georgia Tech), No. 3 (Georgia) and No. 7 (Alabama) national seeds.
As demonstrated in the semifinals, North Carolina’s bullpen is susceptible to giving up big innings to aggressive teams like West Virginia.
Ace Jason DeCaro may go in Game 1 for the Tar Heels, and although he had a complete game shutout against USC in the Super Regional, he gives hitters a chance to put bats on balls.
Oklahoma’s lineup, meanwhile, has come alive late in this tournament. Players like Jason Walk, who hit just six home runs all year, erupted in big moments, bashing two homers in the closeout game against Georgia.
This Sooner run is similar to 2022 Ole Miss, which ended up winning the national title despite (a) being unranked, (b) being seeded No. 3 in its region, (c) finishing under .500 in SEC play and (d) losing in the first game of the SEC Tournament.
But when you catch fire at the right time, banners hang.
Using an aggregate of ratings systems (DSR, PEAR, RPI, etc.), Oklahoma should be priced closer to a PK with a 47% series expected win rate. The fair value comes out to +115, and we can bet the Sooners at +155.
Note: Weather could be an issue this weekend, so keep an eye on game updates.
