The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Oklahoma Sooners in Game 2 of the College World Series finals at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, June 21. The game will be broadcast on ABC.
UNC enters as a favorite of -154 on the moneyline and is -1.5 (+120) on the run line. Oklahoma, meanwhile, enters as a +120 underdog and is +1.5 (-154) on the run line. The over/under sits at 9.5 total runs (-115o / -115u).
This postseason, my best bets have gone 14-8 for +9.58 units and 4-1 for +3.57 units during the College World Series.
Let's dive into my UNC vs Oklahoma prediction and College World Series picks for Game 2 of the championship series on Sunday, June 21.
UNC vs Oklahoma Prediction
- UNC vs Oklahoma Pick: Oklahoma ML +120
My Oklahoma vs UNC best bet is on the Sooners to win Game 2 of the CWS finals.
UNC vs Oklahoma Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 9.5 -115o / -115u | -154 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 9.5 -115o / -115u | +120 |
UNC vs Oklahoma College World Series Preview
The Oklahoma Sooners are nine innings away from winning their third College World Series championship (1951, 1994). They beat the North Carolina Tar Heels in Game 1 yesterday, 9-3, putting UNC in a win-or-go-home scenario today.
Sophomore Ryan Lynch (5-4, 4.20 ERA) starts for the Tar Heels, while freshman Xander Mercurius (6-7, 4.74) kicks things off for the Sooners.
If North Carolina wins today, the winner-takes-all Game 3 plays out tomorrow.
Before the series began, I gave out a best bet on Oklahoma to win the series at +155. Up 1-0, I’m going back to the well because sportsbooks still don't appropriately price Oklahoma.
It’s all-hands-on-deck for North Carolina today as it tries to avoid ending its season in heartbreak. Jason DeCaro is the only Tar Heel arm I expect not to go, as he threw 83 pitches yesterday, giving up seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings.
In total, UNC used 5 1/3 innings from its bullpen (89 pitches), whereas Oklahoma needed four innings (66 pitches). Caden Glauber (2.17 ERA, 5 saves) and Jackson Rose (2.15) were unused for the Tar Heels.
As mentioned in the series best bet, it’s hard to argue against Oklahoma’s form.
Not only are all three freshmen starters pitching out of their minds — Mercurius held Georgia to three runs in 7 1/3 innings last time out — but the Sooners’ lineup is hitting as well as anybody has this season, top to bottom.
Catcher Deiten Lachance notched two more home runs yesterday, bringing his total to 16 on the year. In total, Oklahoma smacked six extra-base hits in Game 1, bringing that total to 16 XBH since getting to Omaha.
As a team, OU is batting a ridiculous .340 and slugging .600 since the NCAA Tournament started, figures that would each rank third nationally (and up from .280 on the season).
UNC vs Oklahoma Pick, Betting Analysis
Given the starting pitchers and weighing recent form more aggressively, Oklahoma has a 50% expected win rate for this game (per DSR, PEAR, CBI and RPI), making the fair value around even money.
I understand where the lag comes from. Dramatically changing Oklahoma’s rating based on the last two weeks may not trump 50 other games of work.
Based on the best current price for Oklahoma to win the series (71.4%), the Sooners have a theoretical win probability of 47.5% for Game 3 (estimated ML of +111). If Oklahoma loses today, we’re probably getting a better number than that.
You can estimate these using P(win series) = P(win G2)+P(lose G2)×P(win G3).
So, given our expected outcome of this series, it’s worth betting the moneyline on Oklahoma each time with +EV even if the Sooners don’t get home today.
Further, you can manufacture just a 2% hold in this market given the best odds on either side (-130/+120).
Oklahoma wins the College World Series and extends the SEC’s reign to eight straight champions.
Pick: Oklahoma ML +120
