The ACC finished with a KenPom Net Rating of +15.14 this season, which was an improvement from last year's +9.16 Net Rating.
A main reason for the improvement is due to the success of first-year head coaches. Virginia (Ryan Odom) finished second while Miami (Jai Lucas) finished third, with both teams being in their first season under new head coaches. Meanwhile, Florida State (Luke Loucks) finished with a winning ACC record for the first time since 2021, and NC State (Will Wade) did the same for the first time since 2023.
Though the ACC saw an overall improvement, Duke continued its dominance in league play, finishing 17-1 after going 19-1 last season. The Blue Devils are the clear favorite. However, they're dealing with injuries after Patrick Ngongba II and Caleb Foster got hurt against UNC.
UNC was the only team to knock off Duke this season, but that was with Caleb Wilson. Wilson is out for the rest of the season, and UNC will need its veterans — Seth Trimble and Henri Veesaar — to step up in a big way if it wants to win this event.
So, without further ado, here's my ACC Tournament picks and more.
2026 ACC Tournament Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Duke | -330 |
| Virginia | +650 |
| Louisville | +900 |
| Miami (FL) | +2000 |
| UNC | +2200 |
| Clemson | +4000 |
| NC State | +5000 |
| Florida State | +13000 |
| SMU | +15000 |
| Virginia Tech | +20000 |
| Cal | +25000 |
| Stanford | +30000 |
| Wake Forest | +80000 |
| Syracuse | +80000 |
| Pitt | +80000 |
Odds via DraftKings
2026 ACC Tournament Bracket
ACC Tournament Favorite
Duke Blue Devils
Duke, led by Cam Boozer, is the heavy favorite to win the event.
Boozer, the front-runner to win National Player of the Year, has had 15 straight games with 17+ points, eight-plus rebounds and two-plus assists. The previous longest streak since 2009 was Zach Edey with eight straight games in 2024 (via Evan Miya).
With the uncertainty around Ngongba and Foster's status, Maliq Brown and Cayden Boozer are expected to have increased rolls in their absence.
Though his stats don't catch your attention, Brown is a candidate for ACC Defensive Player of the Year. In Duke's win against UNC, Brown started in the place of Ngongba, finishing with 15 points, nine rebounds, five steals and 10 deflections.
With Foster going down, Cayden Boozer had seven points, five rebounds and three assists in 29 minutes. He'll be relied upon to eat up minutes and be an effective decision maker in Duke's offense.
Cam Boozer has been great, Isaiah Evans can get hot and Brown has the quickest hands on the team, but Duke's X-factor is Dame Sarr. Sarr's ability to disrupt an opposing offense's flow with his on-ball pressure has been a pivotal reason why Duke has the best defensive efficiency on KenPom.
Add the fact that Sarr has become a reliable 3-point shooter (43% in the last nine games), and you can see why he's pivotal to this team's success.
Best ACC Tournament Future
Miami (+2000)
With Duke being -350 to win the tournament, the best value will be on any team on the opposite side of the bracket.
I really like Miami's odds to win the event. Lucas has done miracles as Miami's head coach in his first year, improving its defense from 339th a season ago to 35th in 2025-26.
The Canes have a double bye and will likely have a rematch against Louisville — which they lost to by three earlier this season — and if they win that game, they'll face a Virginia team they also lost to by three.
If the Hurricanes take care of business, they'll face Duke in the championship game. They're the only ACC team Duke didn't face in the regular season, and no other head coach knows Duke like Lucas.
Lucas also starts former Duke commit Shelton Henderson.
Best ACC Value Bet/Bid Stealer
Florida State (+13000)
In last year's ACC Tournament, Duke dealt with adversity against Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils were down 26-12 with five minutes left in the first half while Cooper Flagg and Brown left the game due to injuries.
Now Duke is in a similar injury situation with two starters — Ngongba and Foster — possibly being out for its quarterfinal game.
If Florida State defeats Cal, the Noles will face the Blue Devils, and they're a team that's proven to give Duke problems.
Also, Florida State (+13000) has had the best turnaround in the ACC. Since starting 0-5 in conference play, the Seminoles have won 10 out of their last 13 games.
Over the 13-game span, Florida State is the 31st-best team in the country (via Bart Torvik) and have held opponents to 80 points or less in 12 of its last 14 games.
Most importantly, the Seminoles have proven they can play with anybody, with losses to Florida and Duke by six combined points.
With Robert McCray V's playmaking ability, don't count them out.
Track These Bubble Teams
NC State Wolfpack
It wasn't long ago that NC State was 18-6 overall and 9-2 in the ACC. The wheels have fallen off since, losing six out of seven to end the season, including losses to Notre Dame and Stanford while being blown out by Louisville, Virginia and Duke.
NC State can't guard anyone as of late, and if it doesn't get better play out of Darrion Williams, then the Wolfpack may be on the outside looking in with an early exit in the ACC Tournament incoming.
SMU Mustangs
At one point, SMU was comfortably in the NCAA Tournament, but it ended the season on a four-game losing streak to finish 19-12 overall and 8-10 in league play.
The Mustangs have to take care of business against Syracuse because a first-round loss will potentially put them on the wrong side of the bubble.
They have the backcourt talent to win any game, but they'll need to go out and prove it in Charlotte.
Virginia Tech Hokies
As of now, the Hokies are one of Joe Lunardi's "First Four Out." Their two best wins are a triple-overtime victory against Virginia and a double-digit road victory at Clemson.
For the Hokies to go dancing, they need to beat Wake Forest, Clemson (again) and North Carolina before potentially facing Duke in the semifinals.
Cal Bears
Cal is 21-10 overall and is currently in Joe Lunardi's "First Four Out." The Bears have three solid wins this season against UCLA, UNC (with Wilson) and at Miami.
Their matchup against Florida State is a tough one, and if they're able to knock off the Seminoles, Duke will be waiting for them.
It'll take an upset over Duke to get Cal into the Big Dance.
Stanford Cardinal
Stanford has played its way into flirting with the bubble. The Cardinal — like Cal — are in Lunardi's "Last Four Out."
They have quality wins over UNC (with Wilson), Louisville and Virginia Tech, but they'll need to do damage in the ACC Tournament.
Luckily for them, they're opposite Duke in the bracket.
With Ebuka Okorie being a one-man show, the Cardinal can lean on him to win games in this event.
If they're able to win their first two games, they'll have to beat Virginia, which beat them 70-55 earlier this season.
