The Cincinnati Bearcats take on the Xavier Musketeers in Cincinnati, OH. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Xavier is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -118. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here’s my Cincinnati vs. Xavier predictions and college basketball picks for December 5, 2025.
Cincinnati vs Xavier Prediction
My Pick: Xavier -1.5 (Play to -4)
My Cincinnati vs Xavier best bet is on the Musketeers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Cincinnati vs. Xavier Odds
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -114 | 145.5 -105o / -115u | +102 |
| Xavier Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -106 | 145.5 -105o / -115u | -122 |
- Cincinnati vs Xavier spread: Xavier -1.5
- Cincinnati vs Xavier over/under: 145.5 points
- Cincinnati vs Xavier moneyline: Cincinnati +102, Xavier -122
Cincinnati vs Xavier College Basketball Betting Preview
Cincinnati Basketball
This season was supposed to be a “prove it” campaign for Wes Miller on the sidelines. He has yet to make the NCAA Tournament through four years at Cincinnati, and the directive of “tourney or bust” was clear.
Well, it is looking like “bust” to start the year, as a truly horrific offense has doomed the Bearcats in their two losses.
Against Louisville, Cincinnati tallied 0.90 points per possession (PPP). It got even worse in a “sky is falling” home upset to Eastern Michigan, as the Bearcats mustered just 0.85 PPP against a mid-major foe that ranks 185th nationally in KenPom’s rankings.
Even in the win over Dayton, Cincinnati scored just 0.91 PPP despite going 9-of-19 (47.4%) from beyond the arc. That’s hard to do.
The result: Cincinnati has the worst offense in the Miller era, a damning statement considering that stagnant and bricky offenses have been the primary scourge on his resume.
Special Assistant Kelly Peters was supposed to help modernize the offense after arriving from the NBA ranks.
He has certainly sped up the pace – Cincinnati is playing at the fastest tempo of the Miller tenure, per KenPom – but the Bearcats are turning it over at an alarming rate (293rd national) and still cannot put the ball in the basket.
Fortunately, the defense is stingier than ever. The frontcourt duo of Moustapha Thiam and Baba Miller forms an impenetrable wall around the rim, and Cincinnati ranks top-10 nationally in both block rate and 2-point percentage defense.
The Bearcats also have two superb perimeter defenders in Day Day Thomas and Sencire Harris, both of whom excel at harassing ball-handlers.
Miller (Baba, the player) recently missed two games, including the appalling home defeat to Eastern Michigan . However, he returned against Tarleton State on Monday and made an immediate impact (13 points, 11 rebounds, three assists, two steals, two blocks).
Xavier Basketball
We are only a month into the college basketball schedule, and yet somehow, this has already been a tale of two seasons for Xavier.
The Musketeers were a disaster to begin the season, starting 0-4 against the spread with a -13.5 average cover margin.
Since then, though, they have found some life: 4-1 ATS with a +9.5 average cover margin. Incredibly, the arrow is pointing up for the Muskies and first-year coach Richard Pitino.
The turnaround really started with a second-half surge against Georgia. After trailing the Bulldogs by 14 with 16 minutes remaining, Xavier held Georgia to just 13 points over the next 15 minutes, aided by a zone wrinkle on defense.
Though the Musketeers fell by one point in that game, they bounced back with a solid win over West Virginia the following day and have blown out Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Saint Francis in the past week.
Though Xavier lacks premier two-way pieces, the Musketeers do have a few key assets on the roster.
First, they are huge: per KenPom, Xavier ranks 22nd in average height. Their guards and wings are huge, and that positional size has helped the Musketeers in both switching man-to-man and zone looks.
They also dominate the defensive glass, ranking 32nd nationally in defensive rebound rate. Serbian forward Filip Borovicanin ranks 27th in the entire country individually in that statistic.
Meanwhile, the offense has seen a serious boost with Jovan Milicevic taking a majority of the center minutes. The Canadian sophomore has torched the nets, and he is now 47-of-107 (43.9%) from 3 in his career.
His presence opens driving lanes for Roddie Anderson III and Malik Messina-Moore, and it gives skilled forward Tre Carroll room to operate around the basket.
Xavier does still struggle to generate easy baskets, though; the Muskies are in the 21st percentile in rim frequency and the 27th percentile in rim field goal percentage, per CBB Analytics.
Cincinnati vs. Xavier Betting Analysis
The Crosstown Shootout is one of the biggest rivalries in college basketball. The trash talk from both sides is nonstop and vicious. In a season where neither side has particularly high postseason hopes, this showdown is essentially the Super Bowl for both sides. Bragging rights for a year are at stake.
As this is Pitino’s first Shootout, historical data is limited in relevance. However, the Musketeers are 5-1 straight up and against the spread in the last six meetings, highlighting Wes Miller’s struggles against whoever is on the Xavier bench.
Also highly notable: Cincinnati has not won at the Cintas since 2001 – the Bearcats' first time playing there. As visitors, Cincinnati has lost 10 in a row outright, and the Bearcats are also on a seven-game ATS losing streak at Xavier.
Matchup-wise, it’s hard to envision either team getting easy baskets consistently. Xavier cannot score inside, and Cincinnati does not allow baskets around the rim. Cincinnati, on the other hand, cannot score at all, and zones exacerbate its problems.
Expect to see some defensive wrinkles from Pitino and his staff.
Potential scoring inefficiency on both ends pushes me towards the under, though pace could be a wild card, as both teams love to run on offense (both rank top-35 in shortest average possession length).
It feels crazy to back Cincinnati at the Cintas Center given its horrendous historical results. The two teams also seem to be on vastly differing trajectories, with Xavier ascending (up 31 spots in KenPom since Nov. 18) and Cincinnati dropping like an anvil (down 32 spots since Nov. 16).
Ultimately, I will back the Musketeers. They seem vastly more connected at this point than the disjointed Bearcats, and they will have an outstanding crowd bolstering their efforts.
I also lean towards the under, but I will stay away due to pace concerns.
Give me Xavier -1.5, and I'm laying up to -4.
My Pick: Xavier -1.5 (Play to -4)
