The early-season tournaments are in full swing and Thanksgiving week is nearly here, which signals the best time of the non-conference college basketball season.
But first, there's plenty of value on the board on Friday in the sport.
Read below for college basketball best bets, including three NCAAB expert picks and predictions for Friday, November 21.
College Basketball Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
St. Thomas vs. Northern Colorado
The St. Thomas Tommies are expected by many to take home the Summit League crown this season. They ran into a buzzsaw on opening night against Saint Mary’s, but they've bounced back the past four games (particularly the past two).
Sophomore forward Nolan Minessale has looked as good as advertised, and he should give Northern Colorado major problems.
The Bears took down Pepperdine in their only Division I game, but they were routinely beaten off the bounce and allowed a ton of rim looks. St. Thomas plays through Minessale in isolation and via the post.
On the other end, look for St. Thomas to limit second chances and free throw trips, as Johnny Tauer’s crew always plays sound, fundamental basketball.
Northern Colorado has a couple solid individual players, but it lost a ton in the offseason, namely its three best players and scorers. Ball handling is a clear concern, as the Bears turned it over a whopping 20 times against Pepperdine in their first game.
Expect the Tommies to dig down in the post and pressure their guards on the perimeter. St. Thomas has ranked in the top 100 in defensive turnover rate in each of the past two seasons.
When the opposing team can't overwhelm it in size or athleticism, St. Thomas tends to win. Northern Colorado is certainly bigger and a bit more athletic, but not demonstratively.
Expect a Tommies win in Portland.
Pick: St. Thomas -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
Arkansas State vs. SMU
We have a huge total on Friday in Dallas, but it’s for good reason. This game is going to be an absolute track meet. Both SMU and Arkansas State rank in or around the top 20 nationally in adjusted offensive tempo (KenPom), and both are looking to run whenever possible.
SMU has successfully sped up its opponents in four of its five games — forcing Tarleton State to play a 73-possession game should win you a medal.
The Ponies have terrific guards in Boopie Miller, B.J. Edwards and Jaron Pierre and they excel in the open floor. Per Synergy, SMU ranks in the 72nd percentile nationally in field goal attempt rate in transition and in the 96th percentile in points per possession.
Arkansas State might feel like the shackles have been lifted from its legs as it takes the floor in this one. Of its four Division I opponents this season, only Missouri State ranks in the top 100 of offensive tempo.
Saint Mary’s, Stephen F. Austin and Ohio all prefer to play in the half-court, which has deflated Arkansas State's early results. And yet even though the Red Wolves have played those squads, they’ve still managed to go 3-1 to the over this season with a cover margin of over 10 points per game.
There will be no limits Friday on possessions, and we should see that count tick up over 80 as the Red Wolves look to feast in transition and the Mustangs happily oblige and run the other way.
Pick: Over 169.5 (Play to 173)
Sacramento State vs. Cal
You’re not going to find me recommending to back Mike Bibby many times this year. It’s frankly ridiculous he’s a Division I head coach.
But he does have a ton of talent at Sacramento State, namely two players in Mikey Williams and Jeremiah “Bear” Cherry who could start for nearly every program in the country. Those two guys — plus decent tertiary talent and athleticism littered throughout the roster — should be enough to hang within 20 of Cal.
Cal laying 20 is pretty rich for one of the consistently worst power programs in the country. In their defense, the Bears have beaten two teams this season by 20+, but Cal State Bakersfield is completely devoid of dynamism, and Cal State Fullerton could be one of the worst 20 teams in the country.
Sacramento State doubles over those two squads in talent and physicality. We just saw Cal struggle against an athletic, physical mid-major in Presbyterian, as the Blue Hose were able to hang within 11 the entire game against the Bears despite shooting sub-39% from the floor.
Offensively, Sacramento State will run a ton of ball screens for Williams and play through Cherry in the post. Cal has done well guarding the pick-and-roll, but it hasn’t played any competition outside of Kansas State (which thrashed the Bears for 99 points).
The Bears don’t have much rim protection inside. On the other end, Sacramento State just needs to show enough resistance at the cup and force the Bears to be jump shooters. UCLA smoked the Hornets, but Sacramento State shot only 3-for-24 from deep and was respectable in its three other Division I contests.
The Hornets should be able to hang around and cover the 20-point spread.
Pick: Sacramento State +20.5 (Play to +19)
