Polymarket is a fast-growing prediction market, and while it hasn't fully launched in the United States, you can trade on sports via the app.
I’ve found a few college basketball futures trades I like on the platform, and will break them down below.
Use Polymarket invite code Action to get early access and bypass 1 million+ people on the waitlist. Our Polymarket invite code also unlocks a trading bonus: Deposit $20, Get $20 Bonus!
Michigan to Reach Semifinals/Final Four (Yes 56%)
I’m putting myself in a strange situation here because I’m first and foremost a fan of Ohio State when it comes to college sports, but I like this Michigan team.
Dusty May has proven himself as an excellent head coach. The team has three great frontcourt players who can take over a game at any time. Yaxel Lendeborg is a fantastic wing who can do a little bit of everything, and Michigan has been extremely consistent all season long.
I’m taking Yes at 56% on this one. Michigan is a 10-point favorite against Alabama in the Sweet 16. As long as it takes care of business in this round, it'll be a clear favorite again in the Elite 8.
Joshua Jefferson’s status is still unknown for Iowa State, but even if he plays, he's likely to be less than 100% by this weekend.
Michigan would likely be favored by at least 3.5 points against Iowa State in that potential matchup.
Tennessee has a shot to beat the shorthanded Cyclones, too. If Tennessee wins, Michigan would be at least a six-point favorite in the Elite 8.
Pick: Michigan To Reach Semifinals (Yes 56%)
Arizona to Win National Championship (Yes 20.1%)
Arizona lost two games in a row in mid-February, and it wasn't defeated in another game all season.
The Wildcats were tripped up in a road game at Phog Allen, but that home court advantage at Kansas can beat nearly anyone. They then lost an overtime game at home against Texas Tech in a game where JT Toppin went off for 31 points.
Arizona’s weakness last season was its outside shooting (33.8% from downtown). Arizona has bumped that 3-point shooting number up to a solid 36.4% this season.
Still, the Wildcats don’t settle for many long-range jumpers. This team attacks the basket, and it's extremely comfortable playing through its big men.
Arizona is first nationally in effective field goal percentage defense. Many think of Arizona as a high-octane offense. The Wildcats can definitely score a bunch of points, but their defense is even better than their offense.
Arizona would have to meet Michigan in the Final Four if the favorites win between now and then, and I have no idea who would win that clash of titans.
I do think there's a good chance that the winner of that game will win the National Championship. The Wildcats have no glaring weaknesses, and they have a veteran point guard leading the way.
Pick: Arizona to Win NCAA Tournament (Yes 20.1%)
No. 1 Seed To Win the NCAA Tournament (Yes 60%)
I think one of the top seeds is going to win the NCAA Tournament. Michigan and Arizona have been the two most consistent teams all season. Duke is certainly capable of winning it if it gets healthy once again. I see flaws in the other top teams who are seeded No. 2 or No. 3.
UConn isn’t efficient enough on offense to trust it to win a title this season. Solo Ball has become a really inefficient offensive player, and the Huskies weren’t tested well by a weak Big East either.
Purdue has never won the whole thing under Matt Painter, and this isn't even close to his best team. The Boilermakers had too many ugly losses for me to trust them to win this many games in a row.
Houston has gone 3-6 this season against teams ranked in the top 21 at KenPom. The Cougars aren’t stepping up in class very well this season.
Iowa State’s best player is injured, and it's unlikely to have enough offensive firepower to win the tournament.
Illinois hasn’t been very good in the NCAA Tournament under Brad Underwood, and its defense is much weaker than many of the other top teams.
Michigan State is 222nd in the nation in turnover percentage on offense. I don’t think a team that turns it over that much will win the event.
There's a gap between the top seeds and the rest of the teams in this tourney.
Pick: No. 1 Seed to Win NCAA Tournament (Yes 60%)
