We're only six weeks away from the start of the college basketball season, with many people starting offseason prep with the hope of trying to get ahead of what the 365 teams are going to look like.
Many sportsbooks are gun shy to put up offerings in the futures markets for NCAA basketball and outside of National Championship futures or the Wooden Award, there aren't a lot of offerings.
That is, of course, unless you check the prediction markets, where value can be had. Kalshi specifically has a robust offering of college basketball futures, exotics and niche trading options available. So, lets dive into how to trade on college basketball using Kalshi and our favorite NCAAB preseason pick.
Specific Kalshi NCAAB Offerings
In addition to predicting who will win the National Championship, you can also take out positions on who will qualify for the National Championship game, who will qualify for the Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final Four.
There are hundreds of teams that you can buy contracts on for each stage of the tournament, but with a lack of liquidity, you'll want to remember to execute a “limit order” so you're buying contracts at a smart price, not the best available price currently being offered.
The offerings continue to get updated and will soon include teams to make/miss the field of 76. Yes, you read that correctly: Remember, the NCAA Tournament field expanded this offseason to 76 teams.
Kalshi will offer contracts on teams to make or miss the field of 76, and even the traditional “opening round” field of 64. So, make sure to read the rules of the prediction contracts so you understand completely what the terms of the prediction entail.
Last season, Miami (OH) took the college basketball world by storm with an undefeated regular season. The RedHawks won the MAC regular season title, qualified for the NCAA Tournament and defeated SMU in the play-in round before being bounced by Tennessee in the Round of 64.
Kalshi has a market out there on teams to go undefeated, with Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan and others north of 30:1 to accomplish the feat.
Its hard to do with the intense rigors of conference schedules, MTE tournaments and neutral site non-conference showdowns, so don’t get carried away with trying to snipe the next undefeated team.
Live Trading College Basketball on Kalshi
Kalshi offers plenty of options to extract value in college basketball, but one of the primary advantages can be using the platform while live trading games day-to-day.
When trying to live bet through a traditional book, you're betting against someone who's 20-30 seconds ahead of you due to streaming or TV feed delays.
Unless you wait for a true stoppage in the action for a media time out, you're at a significant disadvantage against traditional books. Kalshi has markets up for every game in college basketball, and the live trading can be really advantageous if you're watching closely.
Keep the Kalshi account up and watch for live trading opportunities daily during the season.
The Kalshi Trade to Make: St. John's 21+ Regular Season Wins
One of the best preseason market offerings in college basketball on the Kalshi platform are college basketball regular season win totals. This type of wager is synonymous with college football, but Kalshi has win total offerings in college hoops for select teams.
Many of the college basketball schedules are still being finalized and key things to consider will be how many games a team is going to play in the regular season, what MTE tournaments they're participating in and what the non-conference schedule looks like.
With that in mind, the play I would look at would be St. John's to win 21+ regular season games.
There are no pushes with this wager; if St. Johns wins 21 games during the regular season, this prediction would resolve as a correct outcome and you would be paid for your contract.
The current offering in the order book is 69c on the ask, and 40c on the bid, and there's not a ton of liquidity on this event. I'll seek to use a limit order on this and try to pluck this for 50c.
St. John's is going to contend this year in the Big East and the team is ascending under the leadership of head coach Rick Pitino. The acquisition of Tounde Yessoufou, who averaged 17.8 points and 5.9 rebounds per game last year as a freshman at Baylor is huge.
Yessoufou is a disruptor on the defensive end and he should fit right in with the high-energy defensive system Pitino likes to deploy.
Keyshawn Hall came over from Auburn, but his eligibility is still in question. If he's back in the mix, this team is going to contend on a national level, in addition to being one of the premier teams in Big East play.
The non-conference schedule is manageable, and St. John’s will rack up the wins early and often before conference play starts.
The Johnnies are also participating in The Players Era Tournament in Vegas, where they'll get four games during the event. St. John's will likely play 31 or 32 regular season games before postseason play starts, and the Red Storm have won 25 and 27 games, respectively, over the last two regular seasons.
If you can obtain contracts for St. John's to win 21+ regular season games at any price under 62c, you'll be in an equity position with this wager halfway through conference play.
