In our second series of content for the Action Network college basketball vertical, our proprietary model will help focus in and find edges for game totals to bring you our college basketball best bets.
With that in mind, here's our college basketball picks and two bets for Saturday, January 17.
You can find all of our picks daily in the free Action Network app:
The showdown between No. 11 BYU and No. 15 Texas Tech offers a prime opportunity to back the Cougars as +3.5 underdogs.
BYU has been exceptionally reliable on the road this season, maintaining an impressive 82 points-per-game average while holding opponents to just 72 points a night.
While Texas Tech remains a force at home, it's shown recent struggles when tasked with containing upper-tier offenses (81 points allowed to Duke, KenPom’s 12th highest-rated offense, at home on December 20). That makes the Red Raiders vulnerable to BYU’s high-efficiency attack (KenPom’s eighth highest-rated offense).
Our model actually gives the Cougars a slight edge to win the game outright, so getting more than a three-point cushion provides significant value.
Expect BYU’s road-tested discipline to keep this game within a possession or lead it to a straight-up victory in Lubbock.
Pick: BYU +3.5
Our projection, which favors the under for Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State, hinges on a massive discrepancy between the 177.5 market line and the actual offensive output of both squads.
While sportsbooks are pricing Oklahoma State for a 90-point explosion, the Cowboys have cooled significantly, averaging just 79 points per game over their last five outings.
This regression, paired with Kansas State’s recent shooting slump (highlighted by a dismal 20% performance from deep), suggests that even a high-tempo game will lack the efficiency needed to threaten such a high total.
Evan Miya (174) and our own model (172) project a much lower ceiling, providing nearly a six-point cushion against a line that overvalues early-season stats rather than current reality.
Pick: Under 177.5
