We’re only 24 days away from Selection Sunday. I’m like a kid in a candy store as the brackets are revealed. It’s an awesome time of the year for sports fans and college basketball bettors.
Today's slate puts the spotlight on mid-major programs across the country, and it's a great opportunity to watch a few teams we could see in the NCAA Tournament next month.
Let's dive into my top mid-major college basketball picks for Thursday, February 19.
Charleston vs. NC A&T
Charleston’s Connor Hickman has been ruled ineligible. Without Hickman, Charleston has wanted to play slower. It was stunning to see the Campbell/Charleston matchup this past weekend play to a pace of just 61 possessions. That was four possessions slower than any other Campbell game in the CAA this season.
North Carolina A&T is really aggressive in taking the ball to the basket. The Aggies aren’t good from long range, but they're 17th in the nation in FTA/FGA on offense. Charleston is a challenging matchup for them, though, because Charleston is first in the CAA in FTA/FGA allowed.
North Carolina A&T is coming off a strange scheduling spot, where it went all the way to California for an HBCU matchup against Hampton. The Aggies are 270th in the nation in offensive efficiency, and this could be a tough spot for them. At the same time, Charleston’s offense hasn’t been consistent at all in recent weeks.
I’m siding with the under 147.5 in this one.
Pick: Under 147.5
Austin Peay vs. North Florida
North Florida ranks last in the nation in defensive efficiency, as the Ospreys are allowing a ridiculous 91.4 points per game this season. North Florida ranks as the fastest-paced team in the ASUN, too.
Austin Peay is its opponent in this one, and the Governors play at the third-fastest tempo in ASUN play.
North Florida is awful defensively, and if its opponents don’t make the first shot, they have a great chance of getting another opportunity.
North Florida is 365th out of 365 teams in the country in second-chance conversion percentage allowed, per Haslametrics. Austin Peay grabbed 16 offensive rebounds in its 102-83 win over North Florida earlier this season.
Austin Peay’s Collin Parker is an elite 3-point shooter (46.2% on the season), and this Governors offense is very balanced.
Austin Peay is much better on offense this season than it was a year ago. Even with a weaker offense last season, Austin Peay poured in 97 and 90 points in its two meetings against North Florida.
Austin Peay is aggressive with its trapping, and it's more than willing to get out in transition off a steal. North Florida lacks the ball handlers to counter this Austin Peay pressure.
Austin Peay has been rolling on offense of late, as the Governors have scored 87 points or more in four straight games. I don’t think North Florida’s defense can stop them.
Pick: Austin Peay Team Total Over 87.5
Southern Utah vs. Tarleton State
We go to the WAC for a battle between the Thunderbirds of Southern Utah and the Texans of Tarleton State. The WAC doesn’t have enough teams in the conference this season, so this is the third meeting between these two.
And a third regular season meeting is something you don’t see very often.
The first game finished 106-105 in overtime. There were 70 free throws in that game, and Tarleton’s Dior Johnson piled up 40 points while Cam McDowell scored 24. The second matchup finished 62-59, meaning the games couldn’t have possibly been more different.
Johnson has missed six straight games, while McDowell has missed the last two games. Johnson recently posted on social media that he hasn't been medically cleared, and there are no indications that it's coming soon. Johnson averages 23.6 points per game and is the star of the team, while McDowell puts up 13.9 points a night.
No one else on the team even averages in double figures.
Southern Utah isn’t a good defensive team, so there are certainly some risks here. Still, Tarleton hasn’t scored more than 65 points in seven straight games. The Texans have slowed their pace down, and they haven’t been getting to the line as much.
Tarleton is likely to be shorthanded once again, and I don’t trust its offense.
Pick: Tarleton State Team Total Under 74.5
