While many scoff at the quality of Thursday night college hoops, they are missing out on some great mid-major college basketball.
I appreciate all college hoops, so the big games are just fine, but mid-majors deserve a lot more love.
Let’s dive into my top mid-major college basketball picks for Thursday, February 26.
Stony Brook vs. Monmouth
Monmouth has been a completely different team with Kavion McClain on the floor. McClain is a transfer from Texas Southern who has played in only the last five games for Monmouth. McClain’s quickness in the backcourt has opened things up for the Hawks' offense. He has at least five assists in four of his five starts.
Monmouth won 76-75 at Stony Brook in McClain’s first game, which was just three weeks ago. Monmouth won that game and put up 76 points despite shooting the ball very poorly from the floor. The Hawks grabbed 13 offensive rebounds, and I would expect plenty of second-chance opportunities for them here again.
Stefanos Spartalis missed that game for Monmouth, too, and he is one of their best offensive players. Stony Brook is second-worst in the CAA in defensive rebounding percentage, and Monmouth is above average on the offensive boards.
Monmouth has clearly picked up their pace with McClain running the show. They have had 72 possessions in three of their last five games (the only games he has played this season). That matches their highest pace of any game this year against a Division I opponent.
Stony Brook’s offense has been extremely inconsistent on the road, so I’m going to go with a Monmouth team total here.
Pick: Monmouth Team Total Over 74.5
Stetson vs. Jacksonville
The Stetson Hatters travel to Jacksonville to take on the Dolphins on Thursday night. Jacksonville is easily the slowest-paced team in the Atlantic Sun. The Dolphins were able to stall their recent game against high-flying North Florida down to just 58 possessions.
Stetson and Jacksonville just met two weeks ago, and the final was 67-62. There were 63 possessions in that game. I project this game to have 62 or 63 possessions. Stetson is averaging 10.1 points per game, fewer on the road than they are at home. Interestingly, Jacksonville has averaged 67.2 points per game at home compared to 68.2 points per game on the road.
These schools are less than two hours away from each other. Though this is a late-season game between two teams who have disappointed (especially Jacksonville), I do think the intensity level will be there for this contest.
Pick: Under 139.5
UT Arlington vs. Cal Baptist
Cal Baptist hosts UT Arlington in a WAC battle on Thursday night. The WAC is as wild as ever this year, with the teams squaring off three times, and Utah Valley being in the middle of a battle with the WAC in their final year.
After a judge granted an injunction, it does look likely that Utah Valley will be able to play in the WAC Tournament. Now, Utah Valley still has plenty of work left to do to win the WAC regular season title.
Cal Baptist is just one game behind Utah Valley. The Cal Baptist Lancers will be clear favorites in the rest of their games in the regular season.
UT Arlington has hosted Cal Baptist in the first two meetings between these teams this season. UT Arlington won the first game 63-51. Cal Baptist won the second meeting, 87-77, in overtime. The second meeting ended in a 68-68 tie at the end of regulation.
Cal Baptist has been excellent on defense all season, but they have been at their best on defense on their home floor. The Lancers are a rare team in this league that can grab defensive rebounds at a high rate and defend without fouling.
That makes them a tough matchup for UT Arlington. The Mavericks rely heavily on getting second chances and getting to the charity stripe.
These are the two slowest-paced teams in the WAC. I expect another slow pace in this game.
The under is 9-3 in Cal Baptist’s 12 games as a home favorite this year.
Pick: Under 133.5
